Broadcom expects its semiconductor business to take a $2 billion revenue hit from the U.S.-China trade war, including the Trump administration's "Huawei export ban,” CEO Hock Tan said on a fiscal Q2 call June 13. The trade frictions are “creating economic and political uncertainty and reducing visibility for our global OEM customers,” he said. “Demand volatility has increased and our customers are actively reducing inventory levels to manage risks.” The $17.5 billion in semiconductor revenue Broadcom now expects in the fiscal year ending in February will translate into a year-over-year decline in the high single-digits, Tan said. Huawei generated about $900 million of revenue for Broadcom last year, but the market softness that prompted the company to shave $2 billion off its semiconductor revenue forecast “obviously extends beyond just one particular customer,” Tan said. “We're talking about uncertainty in our marketplace,” and that’s causing “compression” in the supply chain that’s reducing orders, he said. “It's broad-based.” With the revised forecast, “we tried to capture everything” in the business “environment,” including the impact of the proposed List 4 tariffs on Chinese goods, Tan said. The environment “is very, very nervous, and that's why we see a very, very sharp and rapid contraction of the supply chain and orders out there from our customers,” he said.
Before the U.S.-China trade war began, all countries that exported goods to China faced an average 8 percent tariff, according to a recent analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. But now, U.S. exports to China are taxed on average at 20.7 percent, while German, Asian and Canadian producers are facing an average tariff of 6.7 percent.
Vietnam is cracking down on transshipment schemes that falsely claim Vietnamese country of origin to avoid high tariffs on Chinese goods, according to a June 13 report in CustomsNews. Vietnam Customs has discovered dozens of certificate of origin violations so far, particularly in the textiles and apparel, seafood, agricultural, steel, aluminum and timber sectors, the report said.
Two top Trump administration agricultural officials said “substantial and immediate purchases” of U.S. agricultural goods are hinging on several current trade deals, but said they haven’t been told of any plan by Mexico to “immediately” purchase large amounts of U.S. agricultural goods, as President Donald Trump alluded to in a June 8 tweet.
Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner, D-Va., and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., urged President Donald Trump's administration on June 13 not to use U.S. restrictions on Huawei as a “bargaining chip in trade negotiations” with China. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security issued a notice adding Huawei and affiliates to a list of entities subject to export administration regulations beginning May 16 (see 1905160072). BIS issued a general license temporarily allowing certain transactions by Huawei and the affected affiliates through Aug. 19. Trump later said sanctions against Huawei could be part of trade negotiations with China.
Tariffs Hurt the Heartland sent a letter to President Donald Trump June 13 saying that he should push China to change its trade practices, but said, "broadly applied tariffs are not an effective tool to change China’s unfair trade practices." The letter, signed by 520 companies and 141 associations, said, "We remain concerned about the escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs. We know firsthand that the additional tariffs will have a significant, negative and long-term impact on American businesses, farmers, families and the U.S. economy."
The China Cotton Association will request an exclusion for uncombed cotton from Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, according to a report from Reuters. The trade group published a notice on its website June 13 asking for information from its members on their cotton imports and the impacts on their businesses, which will be used in the submission to the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The period to request exclusions from China’s retaliatory tariffs ends July 5 (see 1905290034).
China appears to be formally laying the groundwork for export restrictions on rare earths, after previously only hinting in state media reports that they could be used to counter U.S. trade restrictions, according to an emailed update from the China-based consultancy Trivium. Citing a report from China's state-run Xinhua news service, Trivium said three Chinese ministries sent out survey teams June 10 to gather input from rare earths producers in several provinces. That follows three recent China National Development and Reform Commission symposiums where experts called for stricter export controls on rare earths, Trivium said. Though the survey was aimed at gathering “suggestions on how to improve protection and value of rare earths,” they also sought input on “further exerting the strategic value of rare earths and other resources,” according to an unofficial translation of the Xinhua report. The surveys signal that “Beijing is no longer hinting that it has the rare earths card at its disposal,” Trivium said. “Authorities have moved forward, and are seriously looking into the details of how exactly to implement export controls,” Trivium said. “Specifically, they are trying to understand how to minimize any negative impact on the domestic industry while maximizing external leverage.”
The future for international trade with Canada is closely aligned with what will happen in the U.S. on several fronts, Canada-based law firm Bennett Jones said in its spring 2019 economic outlook report. The likelihood of passing an updated NAFTA recently got a boost through the end to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico and the retaliatory tariffs from those two countries, the law firm said. Still, the U.S. said it expects monitoring and surge prevention related to steel and aluminum, though it remains unclear exactly how this will occur. "It is not unlikely that difficult bilateral discussions still lie ahead, although it is to be hoped that the Americans would not readily reimpose these tariffs," the firm said.