Businesses are relieved by the quasi-truce between China and the U.S., consultants and lawyers said on a trade panel last week, but those in the tech sectors expect more restrictions are coming in the near future.
Industry lawyers and advisers see the Bureau of Industry and Security's revamped voluntary disclosure policies as a positive set of moves that could reduce compliance burdens on exporters and encourage more companies to come forward with tips about their competitors. But at least one former government official said corporations should remain skeptical about the changes until BIS offers more clarity about how it will implement them in practice.
A senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the dissection of Russian military equipment used in the Ukraine war frequently uncovers Western-made microchips.
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Policy experts and former government officials speaking on a panel this week mostly agreed that the U.S. should impose sectoral-based outbound investment restrictions on China rather than individual investment sanctions on specific entities, saying a sector approach would be much simpler and more effective. And although some companies say it will be too challenging to comply with a broad investment ban on sensitive Chinese technology sectors, one expert said it will be easier than the financial industry is letting on.
An investigation by the House Select Committee on China found that five U.S. venture capital firms have invested more than $3 billion in Chinese technology companies, many of which aid China’s military, surveillance apparatus and human rights violations, the committee said on Feb. 8.
The Treasury Department is likely to release its draft outbound investment regulations in the next several months, setting them up to potentially take effect before year's end, said foreign investment lawyer Jonathan Gafni of Linklaters.
The U.S. and other governments have so far placed export controls only on advanced semiconductors because they may believe restrictions on a broader, more mature set of chips won’t be effective, experts said this week.
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The top Democrat on the House Select Committee on China said he believes Congress will be able to overcome its internal disagreements to pass legislation restricting outbound investment in China.