Experts disagreed on whether the spread of the coronavirus will make it impossible for China to reach its purchase commitments, or make it more likely that China will wish to please the U.S., as its economy suffers. But one thing most agreed on -- the disease's impact is another reminder, after the tariff war, that companies should diversify instead of being wholly reliant on Chinese factories. The experts were on a panel at the Washington International Trade Association conference Feb. 4 on the future of U.S.-China trade.
While the phase one deal is a welcome pause in trade war hostilities between China and the U.S., the president of the Asia Society Policy Institute said a conclusion to phase two -- which presumably would lift Section 301 tariffs -- won't come this year. The think tank's president, Kevin Rudd, who also is a former prime minister of Australia, said at a program Jan. 28, “I think the best way to look at the phase one deal is that it's a ceasefire. I wouldn't go beyond that, to be honest.” He added, “I don't think it's in either side's political interest to see phase two conclude or fail on this side of a presidential election.”
Despite resumed talk about tariffs on European autos, U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials say they are heartened by the first signs of progress in months for trade talks between the European Union and the United States. Marjorie Chorlins, the Chamber's senior vice president of European affairs, said with a new team at the European Commission, and the positive comments after the meeting in Davos, Switzerland, between President Donald Trump and EC President Ursula von der Leyen, the business community is feeling new hope for an improvement in relations. The officials spoke during a Jan. 24 conference call.
The volume of imports from China fell about 20 percent across the fourth quarter, Flexport executives noted during a webinar Jan. 21 -- which represents both shifting to other categories of goods and re-orienting supply chains. Ryan Petersen, CEO of the freight forwarder, said 64 percent of its clients are paying additional tariffs because of the Trump administration policies.
An expert panel evaluating the changes associated with the labor chapter under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement say that there are a lot of unknown details on the rapid response mechanism to enforce complaints about collective bargaining in Mexico. The panel spoke at the Washington International Trade Association on Jan. 16.
Whether the flow of counterfeit goods shipped from China will abate as a result of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement is yet to be seen, but Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said the “language was pretty detailed and complete.” Allen, who was responding to a question from International Trade Today during a Jan. 16 conference call, said this represents “a huge shift in the official Chinese attitude. We should be appreciative of the Chinese government commitment here to better police that [counterfeit problem] internally and at their own border.”
Daimler CEO Ola Kallenius told reporters that Mercedes-Benz's transition plan for auto rules of origin under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will take three or four years. Kallenius, who was responding to a question from International Trade Today after a Q&A at the Washington Economic Club Jan. 10, did not say explicitly that the carmaker would be applying for the extension, which would require the company to show how Alabama production -- not just Mexican production at its joint venture with Nissan -- will meet the tougher standards. If it will take Mercedes four years to meet the standard, they would need an extension.
Nearly seven in every 10 TV sets imported to the U.S. in November originated in Mexico, according to new Census Bureau import data accessed on Jan. 10 through the International Trade Commission’s DataWeb tool. November was the third full month that 15 percent List 4A Section 301 tariffs were in force on finished TV sets from China, causing profound shifts in TV-sourcing trends. The U.S. imported 3.66 million TVs from all countries in November, a 22.3 percent decline sequentially and down 40.8 percent from November 2018, DataWeb said. Unit imports for 2019's 11 months declined 4.5 percent year on year to 37.43 million sets.
Import volume at major U.S. retail container ports is expected to return to its “usual seasonal patterns” in early 2020 after “a year of fluctuations driven by the uncertainty of the trade war with China,” the National Retail Federation said. The “cycle of imports surging ahead of expected tariff increases” was not good for retailers “trying to manage their inventory levels or trying to make long-term business plans,” the NRF said. It estimates the U.S. handled 1.67 million 20-foot-long cargo containers or their equivalents in November, down 11.2 percent from October and down 7.5 year-over-year, it said. “With on-again, off-again progress on trade negotiations reported throughout the fall and other factors affecting shipping, an expected surge ahead of the canceled December tariff increase did not materialize.”
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce laid out its priorities for trade in 2020, and most of them were well-known in 2019: getting USMCA passed; ending steel and aluminum tariffs; negotiating comprehensive trade agreements with Japan, the European Union and the United Kingdom. But lesser-known priorities are: ensuring that new regulations on foreign ownership of American firms are focused on national security issues, and arguing for a balanced approach in the regulations from the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 that protect “national security without unduly hindering legitimate commerce.” The Chamber also said Jan. 9 that it wants Congress to approve “permanent normal trade relations with Kazakhstan and its graduation from the Jackson-Vanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974.”