Fixed Wireless Access Seen Spreading From U.S. to Other Markets

Tina Lu, principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, said that while the U.S. is the FWA connections leader, India will surpass it because of that country's "sheer number of households.” Highlighting Brazil, Lu said its FWA growth is similar to what the U.S. is experiencing. Operators in Brazil had access capacity because sales of 5G smartphones were slower than expected and have focused on fixed offerings, she said. Counterpoint forecasts more than 300 million FWA users worldwide in 2030.

“5G FWA services have been on a dramatic growth trajectory in the U.S., absorbing all broadband subscriber growth in the market since mid-2022 and amassing more than 600-700 thousand net adds per quarter,” a recent Opensignal report on FWA said. “This is despite the USA being a mature broadband market with nearly 97% broadband adoption and modest household growth,” it added. Opensignal found more than a third of FWA adopters in the U.S. are younger than 35, compared with a quarter of cable subscribers.

The report said U.S. mobile networks are proving resilient: “Despite adding millions of 5G FWA subs since 2021, 5G speeds on T-Mobile and Verizon’s mobile networks have continued to improve.” The report questions whether the U.S. model would work in other countries.

FWA is already seeing uptake in nations like Botswana, South Africa and Nigeria, said Robert Wyrzykowski, principal analyst at Opensignal and author of the recent report. In some markets, 5G FWA is deployed before 5G mobile services, he said. FWA will provide new revenue streams for carriers, Wyrzykowski said. 5G FWA is “a highly competitive value proposition for broadband subscribers that they can consider as an alternative to other services.”

The U.S. is seeing 600,000-700,000 FWA net adds every quarter, Wyrzykowski noted. “This is a very significant achievement because the U.S. is a very mature broadband market.” Verizon already has more than 3 million FWA customers, T-Mobile has in excess of 5 million, he said.

The number of consumers adopting FWA is big in the U.S. because the market is large, said John Yazlle, Ericsson global head-FWA. FWA has the potential to address the digital divide the same way that GSM expanded mobile communications, he said. GSM and CDMA were the standards for mobile wireless during the 2G era. “We’re going to see wireless prices coming down” and there is a “huge need” for broadband connections worldwide.

The U.S. has benefited from a competitive market, said Cesar Bachelet, lead analyst-fixed, TV and convergence at GSMA Intelligence. When looking at the U.S. broadband market, you think there are many players, so it must be “highly competitive,” he said. But often, the only choice a customer has had is between a cable operator and fiber from one of the telecom carriers, primarily Verizon or AT&T, he said.

In many markets, “people are looking for potential alternatives” and that is “one of the drivers” for FWA, Bachelet said. The extent to which customers feel unserved or underserved will be “one of the key factors in the success” of 5G FWA.

It is possible that FWA will make the most sense financially in advanced countries like the U.S. rather than in emerging countries, said William Murphy, director-client analytics at Opensignal. Outside the U.S., “a similar approach” as seen here “could definitely scale,” he said. FWA “really reduced” the number of U.S. households with one broadband option. “To get to that point,” carriers had to have enough mid-band capacity to offer the service, he said.

FWA has the highest penetration rates and is the most effective “pound for pound” in rural areas, Murphy said. But T-Mobile and Verizon won’t meet their FWA goals without also serving urban markets, he predicted. T-Mobile has had the most success in cities, Murphy said.