Companies Hoping for BIS Export Control Guidance, 'Concerned' About China Retaliation, Expert Says
Many companies are still trying to assess the “exact implications” of the U.S.’s new export controls on China (see 2210070049) and are hoping guidance from the Bureau of Industry and Security provides some answers, said Paul Trulio, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Trulio told Bank of America that the controls are “still in the early stage” and it's too soon to “quantify the impact,” according to an Oct. 19 readout of a call published by the bank.
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But Trulio, senior vice president for China and technology policy lead at Albright Stonebridge Group, said there are “many losers” as a result of the rules, including U.S. tool makers, according to BofA. “This is really a landmark to see one country using export controls in order to maintain the leadership by [a] couple of generations ahead of its competitors in semiconductors,” the readout said.
He added that companies are waiting for BIS to publish frequently asked questions, especially “given that lithography tools can be applied to a wide range of process nodes, no one really knows the exact range of restriction.”
Trulio also said U.S. industry is “very concerned” about a potential retaliation from China, which is likely still digesting the new controls. “It could take some time for Party Congress to understand the whole rules, and it should be careful in order to avoid a similar situation like that happened to Huawei,” the readout said. China may respond in the next two months, it said, and the level of retaliation may depend on how Chinese companies, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, are treated. “If YMTC/SMIC will be unable to operate after three months without support from equipment suppliers, China might be forced to react strongly to the US' measures.”