Multilateral Missile Tech Export Controls Should Be Strengthened, Researchers Say
Countries should strengthen multilateral export controls over advanced hypersonic weapons technologies and work closer to prevent their proliferation, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in an April report. This may require more stringent export restrictions at multilateral control regimes and better outreach to countries outside the regimes, the report said, including China.
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The report, which offers a range of recommendations to the multilateral Missile Technology Control Regime, said MTCR members should clarify how the regime’s export controls apply to transfers of hypersonic boost-glide systems and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), two types of hypersonic missile systems that “have gained increased attention” in arms control conversation in recent years.
MTCR members should agree on “limited amendments” to the MTCR export control annex to “explicitly include” hypersonic boost-glide systems in the definition of “complete rocket systems,” SIPRI said, or add an “explanatory note” to clarify that HGVs should be treated as “ballistic missile re-entry vehicles.” This would place most HGVs in category 1 of the MTCR annex, which would require member states to “apply a strong presumption of denial” to most transfers of complete hypersonic boost-glide systems and HGVs, SIPRI said.
MTCR members also may need to update the regime’s controls over dual-use technologies to better reflect recent “technical advancements” in missile technologies that could be creating “gaps” in the regime’s controls, the report said. SIPRI also said more “technical discussions” among members could help countries better scrutinize the most sensitive license applications. This is especially important as hypersonic propulsion technologies, “especially scramjet technologies,” could “over time” be used for “civilian applications,” including crewed spacecraft, SIPRI said.
“Control list items may in the future require the addition or adjustment of technical parameters to ensure coverage of advanced engine technologies,” the report said, “without creating undue burdens or levels of restrictiveness of controls on legitimate end-uses.”
The report authors also asked MTCR members to work closer with the multilateral Wassenaar Arrangement “on the coverage and application of export controls to dual-use space launch technologies.” Because both regimes’ controls cover space-launch vehicles and their related dual-use items, they are also dealing with the “growth of the new commercial space industry developing in many countries,” including a “growing focus on reusable rockets and spaceplanes, and developments in single-stage-to-orbit vehicles,” SIPRI said.
The two regimes should discuss “specific engine technologies” and the “broader question” of end-use exemptions for crewed-vehicles, which may need to be “applied or possibly adjusted in the future,” the report said. SIPRI said the regimes should launch a dialogue through the MTCR’s “informal mechanism for setting up technical inter-regime dialogues, drawing on lessons learnt from previous inter-regime dialogues on other technical topics.”
After the MTCR has agreed to new export controls on HGVs, the regime should communicate those restrictions to nonpartner countries, including China, which is already deploying hypersonic missiles, the report said. Some American lawmakers believe weak U.S. export licensing policies have contributed to China’s development of nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles (see 2110180016).
“Addressing the coverage of HGVs and HCMs in MTCR outreach to China would be particularly important,” the report said. “Such wider engagement could help improve the comprehensive application of export controls and build a norm against the proliferation of hypersonic missile systems.”