US Should Impose Sanctions Even If Russia Doesn't Invade Ukraine, Experts Say
If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, the U.S. and allies should still move forward with some sanctions to impose consequences on the Kremlin, experts and former government officials said. Those may include more sanctions against Russian oligarchs, they said, and possibly Nord Stream 2.
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Although the Biden administration has said it doesn’t plan to impose its broad sanctions and export control package (see 2201250042 and 2201270049) unless Russia invades Ukraine, Republican lawmakers this week introduced a bill that would impose some pre-invasion sanctions, including on members of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle (see 2202150071). Others have argued for months for stronger sanctions against the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline project (see 2201140004 and 2201130067).
The U.S and its allies should be considering some of those sanctions now, specifically measures that target Russian oligarchs, Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe, said during a Feb. 16 hearing held by a subcommittee of the House Oversight and Reform Committee. The U.S. should start “preemptively freezing assets of select Russian oligarchs” who have invested in the U.S. “under questionable circumstances,” Hodges said. He said immediate designations will help ensure threats of broader sanctions are “taken seriously.”
Timothy Ash, an economist at BlueBay Asset Management, said at a Chatham House event Feb. 16 that the United Kingdom should have taken similar steps long ago. “It’s beyond me why the U.K. government hasn’t done more,” Ash said about sanctioning Russian oligarchs. “I find it absolutely extraordinary.” Ash said the U.K. has strong know-your-customer rules for banks but said the system isn’t working. “London is not doing enough,” he said. “Maybe compliance departments aren't rigorous enough, maybe regulators don't give a strong enough lead to banks about large oligarchs.”
Richard Grenell, former acting director of national intelligence during the Trump administration, said he disagreed with the Biden administration's justification for waiting to impose severe sanctions, which officials say gives the U.S. leverage and acts as deterrence to Russia. As Senate Democrats and Republicans worked to negotiate a compromise bill this month on a broad set of Russian sanctions, the administration told lawmakers it opposed including Nord Stream 2 in the legislation’s set of pre-invasion sanctions (see 2202030041).
“I can't think of something more callous than to wait for bloodshed to be put on the TV screens before we would make a move on diplomacy and do Nord Stream 2 sanctions,” Grennell told the House Subcommittee on National Security.
If no invasion occurs and the administration doesn’t sanction the pipeline, the U.S. risks falling “back to this situation of Nord Stream 2 moving slowly but gradually towards approval and implementation,” said Steve Mann, a former State Department and Exxon Mobil official. He also argued against sanctions “subtlety,” urging the U.S. to impose harsh measures at the first sign of a Russian military invasion.
“This is not to say by any means that the West throws everything at first go,” Mann told Chatham House, adding that the U.S. may want to first designate only a portion of Russian banks or officials. “In whichever combination the West adopts, I hope we are not overly modest, even against what might seem like a modest provocation.”
Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration, also said current sanctions levels aren’t strong enough, adding that Russia should have faced more consequences for annexing Crimea in 2014. “That was the moment when we should have put in comprehensive sanctions,” McFaul told the House subcommittee. “My own personal view on sanctions is that we haven't done enough.”