Biden Should Move Faster on Russia Sanctions, Experts Say
The Biden administration needs to more quickly impose powerful, multilateral sanctions against Russia for threatening further military actions in Ukraine, security experts said. But coordinated sanctions with Europe could be challenging, the experts said, and may not deter Russia if the restrictions are enacted too late.
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“The game is to show strength,” John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said during a Dec. 22 webinar hosted by the think tank. “We need to send very clear signals that we are going to strongly use all of our power, minus necessarily American troops, to make Russia pay a very high price, and we're not doing that right now.”
The U.S. and its allies have threatened severe sanctions against Russia for weeks, with the U.S. saying last week it’s ready to deploy a range of “financial consequences” (see 2112170024 and 2112130007). The Biden administration also has considered stronger export controls, Reuters reported Dec. 21, including restrictions that could cut off “broad swaths of industrial and consumer technologies” to Russia. The measures could specifically restrict exports of smartphones, aircraft parts, auto parts and more, the report said, adding that the administration plans to work with allies to impose these controls multilaterally. The White House didn’t comment.
But those strong sanctions threats haven’t yet been backed up with action, Herbst said, which could be empowering Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We've seen, alongside that initial strong response, wavering and weakness in dealing with Kremlin provocations,” Herbst said. “If Biden keeps his promises on sanctions, they'll take major economic hits and Putin understands that.”
Alexander Vershbow, an Atlantic Council expert and former Defense Department official, said the administration has sent a “lot of mixed signals” to Russia, including its refusal to sanction the company behind the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project (see 2111220050). “Nord Stream 2 has been hopeless in how we've handled that,” Vershbow said, “even though it was one of our main points of leverage.”
Multinational sanctions may be slowing because of the European Union, said Heather Conley, an international security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Although she said NATO has been very “conscious about this message of strength and unity on sanctions,” the EU needs consensus among its 27 member states to impose the measures.
“That's going to be challenging,” Conley said, adding that the “type of devastating sanctions that we are talking about” will also have an “equally devastating impact on the European economy,” which could dissuade some countries from approving them. “Beyond those rhetorical statements, when the rubber meets the sanctions road,” she said, “that's where we're going to have problems.”
Ukraine's allies can take other steps besides sanctions to deter Russia, including military assistance through weapon exports. Although Germany recently vetoed the sale of certain weapons to Ukraine through NATO, Ukraine can get them elsewhere, Vershbow said. “Most deliveries to Ukraine are bilateral, and I hope that Ukraine will not be disillusioned here,” Vershbow said. “It can go to specific allies and hopefully get the same capabilities, maybe without the same speed or favorable financing.”