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Qualified Bidder List Imminent

SpaceX Latency Skirmish Seen as Proxy Fight for RDOF Dollars

Recent Viasat and Hughes challenges to SpaceX's latency claims for its nascent Starlink constellation (for example, see 2009210012) are aimed at forestalling its being competition in the upcoming Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase I auction, we're told. FCC Chairman Ajit Pai said it will be difficult for a low earth orbit constellation like SpaceX's to qualify (see 2006090031). An FCC official told us the qualified bidder list for the auction could be released as soon as Thursday. The FCC declined comment.

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Anyone obtaining low-latency eligibility would have a huge advantage over geostationary orbit (GEO) connectivity providers in the RDOF auction, and those higher-latency providers would have difficulty winning substantial funding, said a satellite industry consultant with non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) experience. That puts GEO operators at a sizable disadvantage, he said.

Beyond just the latency tests being conducted by SpaceX and how representative they are, the FCC also has to assess whether the NGSO constellation is at a stage where it should be considered more than experimental and eligible to participate at all, the consultant said. "It’s so new, and there are so many uncertainties,” including cost of terminals, he said.

The latency capabilities of Starlink won't be fully known until it's up and running, said broadband consultant Doug Dawson. Latency accumulates when data packets hit electronic devices, such as when signals are relayed from satellite to satellite and then to an earth station, he said. There also could be bottlenecks at earth stations dealing with data being dumped from overhead satellites, he said.

Numerous earth stations, leading to fewer bounces among satellites, could provide almost fiber-like speeds, Dawson said. He said SpaceX's latency won't be as bad as GEOs' but might not make the 20 millisecond latency that the company talked about, he said. "It's hard to think it will be terrible," he said. The company said current beta testing is showing latency of 40 to 50 milliseconds, and it's planning software upgrades to improve that.

The FCC official said the definition of eligible RDOF areas could be issued Thursday, and the qualified bidder list could accompany it. The satellite consultant said if SpaceX isn't on the bidder list, it's not clear if it could hold up the auction, scheduled to start Oct. 29.

Viasat emailed that its questioning of SpaceX latency claims is it "simply responding to SpaceX's advocacy ... whatever its purpose, and correcting the continued errors, omissions, contradictions and misleading presentations in that advocacy." Hughes declined comment. SpaceX declined comment but cited an ex parte filing earlier this week (see 2010060004) in which it called satellite competitors' claims "inexplicable."

SpaceX's request to move more than 2,000 satellites of its planned mega constellation to a lower orbit (see 2004200003) has to be matched with some company solution to the increased space safety risks that request raises, representatives of Amazon's Kuiper told FCC Commissioners Mike O'Rielly and Jessica Rosenworcel and an aide to Commissioner Geoffrey Starks, said an International Bureau ex parte filing Tuesday. The FCC also has to consider the interference issues that come with that lower orbit, Kuiper said.