Astronomy-Protecting Norms for Mega Constellations Underway but Not Imminent
Satellite and astronomy interests are in talks expected to lead to best practices and norms for both, aimed at tackling concerns that broadband satellite mega constellations will be a big impediment to astronomical observations (see 1906100015). But we're told those norms and best practices aren't expected soon. Nor are regulations, as national licensing agencies are watching those satellite/astronomy talks closely but want to see standards take shape, experts said.
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Until norms are crafted and second generations of mega constellations incorporating those new practices begin to be launched, “we may be hosed for a few years. We have to play the long game," said Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell.
This week's Dark and Quiet Skies for Science and Society virtual conference, organized in part by the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs and International Astronomical Union, has as its end goal recommendations to present to the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) on steps governments and private companies can take to mitigate harms to astronomy from such things as satellite constellations and urban lighting. The conference will feature working group meetings between astronomy interests and SpaceX and Amazon, emailed Connie Walker, a National Optical Astronomy Observatory astronomer.
A National Science Foundation/American Astronomical Society workshop over the summer resulted in a report on some possible mitigations. Its recommendations included support for developing software to identify, model, subtract and mask satellite trails in images and to plan observations around the times and projections of satellite trails through an image. Satellite operators were advised to try to avoid "specular reflection (flares) in the direction of observatories" and keep immediate post-launch satellite configurations as clumped together as possible.
Amazon told us reflectivity is a key consideration for its Kuiper constellation plans, with it having made multiple design decisions aimed at reducing its effect on optical and radio astronomy. Amazon said it's also committed to working with the astronomy community, noting it participated in a summer conference. It said astronomers acknowledging a preference for smaller, lower-orbiting constellations is useful, since Kuiper's plans are notably smaller than some other announced mega constellations. SpaceX didn't comment.
Satellite operators are having to react to astronomy concerns because their focus has been on issues such as the business case for mega constellations and logistics of launching in volumes, said Northern Sky Research analyst Dallas Kasaboski. SpaceX has borne the brunt of the astronomy issue because of its high profile and the huge volumes of satellites it plans, he said.
In response, SpaceX deployed some satellites with a darker paint and is testing how much this reduces reflectivity, Kasaboski said. But slapping a coat of dark paint isn't a silver bullet, because that causes thermal dissipation problems that could shorten a satellite's life span or require more power, he said. Raising orbits could help, but that could mean a constellation needs more satellites, he said: "You fix one problem, you create five."
SpaceX has been in fairly constant dialogue with astronomy interests, and there have been some discussions with Amazon and OneWeb, said Harvard-Smithsonian's McDowell. "Companies are making the right noises about working with us," he said.
The steps being discussed will have some improvement, but the tens of thousands of potential satellites being discussed for coming years will still have an astronomical impact, McDowell said: "The question is, will they have a huge impact or a fatal impact."
NSR's Kasaboski said astronomy-centric regulation of mega constellations seems unlikely, given the strong support from the FCC for satellite internet. "There's more interest in launching satellites and figuring out problems later than slowing deployment," he said. Secure World Foundation Space Law Adviser Chris Johnson said regulations are inevitable once industry standards and best practices are hammered out. He said the astronomy community is slowly getting more effective at lobbying regulators but still needs a bigger voice at the regulatory level. Astronomy interests also have to be sure they're talking to the ITU and COPUOS, since the U.K. and other countries "are going to be hot on our heels" in launching mega constellations.