Carr Slightly Favored Over O'Rielly to Succeed Pai as FCC Chair in 2nd Trump Term

Top Capitol Hill GOP lawmakers are remaining mum about their preferences for a Pai successor. Ex-FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn and current Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel are believed to be the Democratic front-runners for chair if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidential election (see 2006170053). Carr and O’Rielly didn’t comment.

Carr and O’Rielly are both “very capable guys” and could be effective as FCC chairman, said Senate Communications Subcommittee Chairman John Thune, R-S.D., in an interview. “I’d refrain from saying anything” about a preference until Pai decides whether he wants to leave the commission should Trump be re-elected, “but I like both.” Pai’s term expires June 30, 2021. He could remain until the next Congress ends Jan. 3, 2023, absent Senate reconfirmation.

It’s “hard to say” whether Carr or O’Rielly would be a better fit for FCC chairman while the matter is a “hypothetical” scenario, Thune said. “Maybe [Pai] will stay.” Thune noted O’Rielly’s 2009-2010 role on the Republican Policy Committee while he chaired the panel. O’Rielly also worked for Sen. John Cornyn of Texas when he was chief Republican whip, among other GOP lawmakers (see 1303210038). O’Rielly drew no criticism and limited attention from Senate Commerce Committee members during a hearing earlier this month on his renomination to a term ending June 30, 2024 (see 2006160062).

Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., told us he didn’t “see any point in speculating about it” while Pai is still leading the commission. Wicker jokingly referred to committee Deputy GOP Staff Director Crystal Tully, who he reportedly is eyeing as a candidate to take the next vacant Republican FCC seat (see 1905090051).

Senate Commerce ranking member Maria Cantwell of Washington told us she and other Democrats want to hear more from Carr and O’Rielly before deciding whether they would object to either commissioner as a future chairman. “I still have more questions” for Carr, O’Rielly and other FCC members when they testify at the committee’s Wednesday oversight hearing and “won’t have a full answer for you” until after, Cantwell said. The hearing is likely to feature continued discussion about the agency's approval of the Ligado L-band plan and commissioners’ views on Trump’s May executive order directing NTIA to petition the commission for regulations defining the scope of Communications Decency Act Section 230 (see 2005280060), lobbyists said.

Advantages

Carr’s strengths are his strong relationship with Pai and that he's on the Trump administration’s radar, industry officials said. Trump has retweeted Carr, who's also frequently retweeted by Donald Trump Jr. Critics cited Carr’s comments this year on Twitter and elsewhere about China and other political matters as evidence he’s courting Trump to name him chairman after Pai’s departure (see 2004240045).

O’Rielly’s strengths are his Hill experience and deep ties to Senate leaders, industry officials said. He has an ally in Robin Colwell, his former chief of staff and now special assistant to the president for economic policy. He's senior FCC Republican after Pai and has the support of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and other GOP lawmakers, officials said. McConnell’s backing was a major factor in Trump’s decision to renominate O’Rielly, but it’s unclear what sway it will have in the chairmanship sweepstakes, lobbyists said. McConnell’s office didn’t comment.

“Carr may have a slight advantage over O’Rielly because Carr seems to have a bit of a higher profile than O’Rielly, especially on social media,” said Taxpayers Protection Alliance President David Williams. “Either one would be a great successor to Pai,” he said. “They are principled free-market men who are trying to close the digital divide while protecting taxpayers. Whether it’s freeing up more spectrum or trying to reduce regulatory burdens for rapid 5G deployment, both Carr and O’Rielly understand the need to get 5G deployed” as soon as possible.

“They’re both great,” said Less Government President Seton Motley: But “why can’t Pai re-up?”

Trump “has two great choices” in Carr and O’Rielly given their track record as “free-market” conservatives since Trump’s transition to the White House began after the 2016 election, said American Enterprise Institute Visiting Scholar Jeffrey Eisenach, who was a member of the transition team. “What’s been interesting over the course of the past couple of years has been watching both of them grow.” Carr, “who people thought of as the dry pseudo-academic attorney, has developed his communications skills and public presence,” Eisenach said. O’Rielly, “who people thought of as more the public presence guy … has developed on the substantive front where he’s digging into some of the most thorny and complex issues facing the FCC.”

O’Rielly has extensive experience working on telecom legislation and policy and Carr had many roles at the FCC before his appointment, emailed Mercatus Center Senior Research Fellow Brent Skorup. “Both are popular and have their supporters in the White House. While they have different styles and approaches, both have prioritized making broadband deployment easier, reliance on markets and the private sector, and the protection of free speech.”

Carr and O’Rielly could both end up in the chair during a second Trump term, said R Street Institute Tech Policy Manager Tom Struble. He noted Carr seems more focused than O’Rielly on returning to the private sector. Carr could take over for Pai and O'Rielly for Carr a “year or two after,” Struble said. “Having more seniority on the commission, O'Rielly might feel snubbed if he isn't picked as the next chairman, but if [Trump] promises O'Rielly that he's next in line then I think he'd be happy to bide his time for a bit longer.”

Twitter Campaigning

O’Rielly isn’t perceived to be campaigning for the chairmanship on Twitter to the degree Carr is, industry officials said.

A review of Carr’s April 19 -June 19 tweets shows him being critical of China 81 times out of 336 total tweets. Determining the subject of a tweet isn’t an exact science, and most of Carr’s tweets are unambiguously FCC-related. Twelve of those tweets about China appeared to be directly about Huawei or U.S security issues with Chinese companies. The bulk of the rest are about China’s government or its response to the pandemic. “There’s nothing a communist can’t stand more than the truth spoken freely,” Carr tweeted April 13. “They chose propaganda over truth & fanned the spread of Covid,” he said in a May 1 tweet urging the street outside China’s Washington embassy be named after a doctor who Carr said was silenced by that country’s government.

Carr says he views his comments on the Chinese government’s authoritarian practices and on U.S. foreign policy toward the country as directly related to his role at the commission, since the agency’s concerns about Huawei and other companies are based on the Chinese government’s influence. Carr tweets about China more than other commissioners, but Pai has a long-running Twitter thread cataloging that nation's authoritarian practices. O’Rielly, a much less prolific Twitter user than Carr, tweeted once in the past two months about Huawei, once in support of Hong Kong protesters, and once about China’s influence over the World Health Organization. O’Rielly had 136 tweets April 19-June 19. O’Rielly has been vocal about condemning France’s digital services tax, tweeting about it in five times during the period.

Carr tweeted 72 times about social media censorship during the past two months. Many of those tweets predate Trump’s signing of the Section 230 EO. “Meet your new speech police!” Carr tweeted May 6, kicking off a thread criticizing the objectivity of Facebook’s oversight board. Carr says his concerns about social media and China stem from an interest in preserving free speech.

Carr also criticized favorite Trump targets, including Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif. O’Rielly tweeted in support of Trump as well but stays closer to topics that are more clearly FCC-related. He twice in the past two months praised a Trump EO on a regulatory bill of rights, and also issued a tweet about the Section 230 order. Most of O’Rielly’s tweets in the past two months that weren’t expressly FCC-related were about virtual car racing.