COVID-19 Restrictions Could Lead to Global Agricultural Shortages, Trade Disruption, Experts Say
If countries place trade restrictions on food supplies similar to those on medical goods, the global supply chain could see significant agricultural shortages within months, trade experts said during a Washington International Trade Association webinar. But even without export controls on food, restrictions on movement and other COVID-19-related controls are already beginning to impact the flow of food goods, the experts said.
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“Food security happens when the system works smoothly, when agricultural products are moved from farms through all varieties of transport systems,” said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food Security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaking during the May 7 webinar. “What we're seeing right now are disruptions across all of those different points.”
Beth Bechdol, the deputy director general of the Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, called on countries to “immediately review their trade and their taxation policy options” and “work in concert with one another to create a favorable environment for food trade.” Bechdol, former chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said “outright export bans … have to be prevented,” adding that the FAO often has had to move countries “off the ledge” when they consider export restrictions on food.
She said other restrictions caused by the pandemic -- including those on travel -- are already impacting food supply chains. “Disruptions -- particularly in the area of logistics -- certainly could materialize in the coming months,” Bechdol said (see 2004160034). Gayle Smith, CEO for ONE Campaign, a non-governmental organization that fights poverty and disease, said international organizations need to collaborate to counter export restrictions. “The longer that waits, the greater the likelihood that we could see even the most extreme manifestation of extreme hunger,” said Smith, who served on the U.S. National Security Council for the Obama and Clinton administrations.
Movement restrictions caused by the pandemic are “threatening the transport” of agricultural inputs, such as seeds and fertilizer, said Welsh, a former State Department official. Welsh pointed to Brazil, a “major supplier” of soybeans, sugar, maize and coffee, which is struggling to move its products from farms to ports because of nationwide restrictions on domestic transportation. “Movement restrictions necessary to contain the spread of the virus will disrupt the transport and processing of food, increasing delivery times and reducing availability of even the most basic food items,” she said.
The pending food crisis calls for a “greater response on an international scale,” Welsh added. She applauded the recent commitment by G-20 leaders to minimize disruption to trade, but said more should be done. “To me, I think that's the bare minimum that we should be seeing by a body such as the G-20.”
While some countries may be justified in restricting exports of critical goods to maintain domestic supplies, they should each have plans for easing those controls once supply is met, said Darci Vetter, former chief agricultural negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the current public affairs director at Edelman, a communications firm. “Some of those measures may be necessary to get a handle on a public health situation, to understand how to deploy resources that you need,” Vetter said. “But at some point, figuring out how to transition back to more open trade is important.”