FCC C-Band Approach Not Likely to be Taken Up Internationally

Given the possibility of litigation challenging the FCC's C-band order or of the agency being petitioned to reconsider, a C-band auction might not start in December, Bransford said. He said November election results, such as Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, also could disrupt FCC auction plans.

Though the FCC opted for an agency auction of the spectrum instead of the C-Band Alliance's hoped-for approach, some aspects of the order reflected CBA wishes, said satellite regulatory consultant Carlos Nalda of LMI Advisors. That includes the ability of Intelsat and SES, because of their market share, to pick the transition facilitator, "assuming they mend fences and work together," he said.

Satellite 2020 organizers said registration at the satellite trade show is on par with 2019 and 88% of exhibitors confirmed on the show floor. Washington Convention Center staff wiped down door handles and escalator handrails throughout the day. Iridium CEO Matt Desch on a panel joked that the speakers and audience were "brave" for showing up. Iridium said it's "proceeding with caution" regarding COVID-19, and that it has implemented some travel policies following international guidelines. It said it's preparing employees to work from home in case of quarantines or local outbreaks, such as increasing the number of virtual private networks it has available.

Telesat said it opted not to attend or exhibit due to COVID-19 concerns. Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg and Intelsat CEO Stephen Spengler had been scheduled to speak Tuesday in a panel of geostationary operators, and both now are off the agenda. Intelsat didn't comment. Others took note of such cancelations (see 200309006).

Still scheduled to speak are Eutelsat CEO Rodolphe Belmer, SES CEO Steve Collar and Hughes President Pradman Kaul. Sheppard Mullin canceled a Satellite 2020 reception scheduled for Monday, citing COVID-19 concerns.

With vastly lower launch costs, customers' significantly higher data demands and “financial patience,” the current low earth orbit satellite mega constellation boom is facing issues vastly different from the largely unsuccessful LEO plans era of the late 1990s, satellite officials said.

“We are in a totally different world,” with the mega constellations part of integrated networks as opposed to more stand-alone operations, said Jean-Yves Le Gall, president of France’s space agency Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales. Iridium CEO Matt Desch said his company, which went through a bankruptcy, “just needed time” to develop its business, but its investors were too impatient. He said LEO mega constellations today seem to not face those same pressures of fast turnaround on investment. However, the business case for mega constellations is still a question mark, as are things like whether adequate user terminals will be available, he said. Summit Ridge Group President Armand Musey said the price point for satellite is making it reasonably competitive with terrestrial options and likely guarantees it a bigger role in the future in consumer applications. He said one big challenge is that consumer broadband equipment remains prohibitively expensive.

Asked about the regulatory challenges of such constellations, OneWeb and SpaceX said their regulatory teams are larger than their sales teams. Dylan Browne, OneWeb government business unit president, said by covering the world uniformly, big parts of the company's capacity sits over Russia and China, and regulatory OK there entails being involved in joint ventures and more government scrutiny. He said about 50% of the planet is ready to go in terms of regulatory approval, but there’s also “lots of amber.” Le Gall said governments all welcome the new applications and providers, and no government wants to stop them.

Some launch executives expect the decline in launch prices to moderate. Rocket Lab Senior Vice President-Global Launch Services Lars Hoffman said proliferation of small-satellite launch startups, some offering lower and lower pricing, will "realize launch is expensive," and many startups "won't even get to that first launch." He said the maturing market will moderate pricing. Virgin Orbit Senior Director-Strategy and Customer Experience Monica Jan said smallsat launch demand can support "a handful of players."

StarLink will focus on the 3% to 4% of the population hard to reach by telcos, instead of competing with them, said SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. He said satellite broadband is a vastly bigger revenue possibility for the company than its launch business is. He said it will have "zero" effect on astronomy, something the astronomy community has expressed concern about (see 2001300051). When first launched, the satellites tumble a bit until they stabilize and reach their orbital heights, which can make them visible, but that effect doesn't last. He said the company is working on minimizing the potential for reflection, with experiments on the phased array antenna being black instead of white. He said there's no plan to separate the StarLink business from SpaceX and the focus is "not going bankrupt."

Growing LEO broadband investment has driven some ground equipment mergers and acquisitions over the past year. The next big wave will be satellite operator-related consolidation, maybe in the form of operators buying operators or buying other parts of the supply chain, said Quilty Analytics Senior Vice President-Investment Banking Justin Cadman.