Iranian Sanctions May Work but Also Hurt US Partners, Former Military Official Says
U.S. sanctions on Iran will force the country to come to the negotiating table but may be permanently damaging U.S. relationships with other trading partners, said James Cartwright, a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a current board director for the Atlantic Council.
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Because of the U.S.’s maximum-pressure campaign, Iran will be forced to negotiate “to extend the timelines and to find a way to at least mitigate a path toward mitigation of the sanctions,” Cartwright said while speaking on a July 30 Atlantic Council panel. He added that U.S. sanctions are “just now starting to be so onerous that they are feeling backlash internally,” and that Iran will begin negotiating when they believe “they will be negotiating from a position of strength.”
But the U.S. may also be hurting itself by continuing to impose sanctions on Iran and indirectly damaging European partners, who are trying to stabilize the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The U.S. has threatened more sanctions as Iran has continued breaching the JCPOA (see 1907080019).
“It’s going to be difficult to sustain this kind of activity,” Cartwright said. “It's one thing to say I'm going to ratchet up the sanctions. It’s another thing to understand what country has been disadvantaged by this, what economies are being disadvantaged by this. It’s a two-way street on a lot of these things.”
Dov Zakheim, a board director for the Atlantic Council, said U.S. tariff threats and trade battles against European countries are also hurting the U.S.’s leverage against Iran. “If we really wanted the Europeans to be on board with what we’re doing with Iran or trying to do, then we shouldn't be beating them up at the same time,” Zakheim said during the panel. “If we’re going to interrupt European business with Iran, how do we compensate the Europeans for the business they've lost? That's what we should be doing.”
Zakheim disagreed with Cartwright, saying the U.S. sanctions don’t seem to be working and will not lead to Iranian change without multilateral support. “They will hold out,” he said. “They may come to the bargaining table, but ... I don't see the regime falling because of this.”
Zakheim also suggested the U.S. may need to offer Iran concessions to get them to negotiate. “You’ve got to give something to the Ukrainians and that's a very tough call, because the best thing we can give them is easing sanctions, which is precisely why we’ll drive them to the table. So there will have to be some kind of give and take.”