CTA Upwardly Revises Its 2019 Sales Forecast, Despite Retrenchment in TV Category
U.S. consumer tech retail revenue is expected to reach $401 billion this year, said CTA Monday in an upgrade of its January forecast. CTA announced at CES it expected 2019 industry sales to top $398 million. The new forecast includes downgrades in CTA's outlook for TV industry sales, and said smart-speaker adoption is expected to slow this year.
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The “growing popularity” of streaming services, plus artificial intelligence-enabled “emerging devices” and connected car technology will be 2019's leading growth drivers, said CTA. “Enthusiasm for AI-powered technologies is skyrocketing,” said President Gary Shapiro. “With 5G delivering the faster connectivity we'll need for anytime/anywhere streaming, smarter home robotics and more advanced vehicles, consumer excitement will only grow.” The cloud of “unnecessary tariffs,” which are “taxes paid by American consumers and businesses,” not the Chinese, “threatens to slow down our nation's economic momentum," said Shapiro.
TVs “remain the centerpiece technology in many American homes,” said CTA. Yet after two years of “record revenue and unit sales for the massive TV category, sales will start to taper off in 2019,” it said. CTA expects the industry to ship 38.8 million TVs this year worth $21.4 billion. Those are downgrades from the January forecast when CTA projected 2019 TV shipments would remain above 42 million units worth $22.6 billion in sales.
CTA forecasts the industry will ship 17 million 4K TVs this year (up 7 percent from 2018) worth nearly $15 billion in revenue (down 9 percent). Those, too, are downgrades from the January forecast when CTA projected 4K TV sales of 22 million sets worth $16.4 billion. CTA did upgrade its revenue outlook on first-year 8K TV sales, saying the industry is expected to ship $734 million worth of product in 2019. In January, CTA said 8K TV sales would reach $545 million. In the new forecast, CTA “adjusted” its 8K TV unit outlook to 175,000 sets from the 200,000-unit estimate it published in January, emailed a spokesperson Monday.
The association had good things to say about the LG-dominated OLED TV sector. The "promising" OLED market will surpass a million units this year, up 30 percent over 2018, said CTA. Double-digit growth in the sector will continue "through CTA's forecast horizon of 2023," it said. In January, CTA called OLED TV a "budding" sector, with 2019 shipments expected to reach 1.4 million in 2019.
Home safety and monitoring products “are driving growth in the smart home category,” said CTA. It expects 2019 sales of Wi-Fi cameras, smart thermostats, smart smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, smart locks and doorbells and smart switches, dimmers and outlets to reach 28.6 million units (up 19 percent) and $4.5 billion (up 16 percent).
After the “rapid adoption” of voice-controlled smart speakers, plus the increased “voice integration” in TVs, soundbars and smart home devices, smart speaker sales are expected to “level off” in 2019, said CTA. “Smart speakers remain a category to watch” this year, it said, with 35.2 million units to be sold (up 1 percent) worth $3 billion in revenue (down 1 percent).