Another Space Industry Bubble Considered Unlikely, But Rules a Must
This commercial space boom is fundamentally different from the one that collapsed in the 1990s, executives said Wednesday at a State Department/Commerce Department conference on commercial outer space. The industry should be able to keep growing with smaller satellite sizes and masses meaning lower payload costs, said Spaceflight Industries CEO Curt Blake. Lower payload costs "have really created a platform open to everyone now," he said.
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Jimi Crawford, Orbital Insight founder, said it used to cost $500 million or more to put a satellite in geostationary orbit. That price tag meant no experimentation. Cost declines enabled more innovation, Crawford said.
On oversight, the space industry is akin to 17th century maritime, without technology and norms necessary for proper regulation, said Virgin Orbit CEO Dan Hart. He said norms and rules on such issues as space situational awareness and space traffic management "are absolutely key" to preserving space as a business environment: "We can't have commerce without some security." Hart also spoke at another space event the same day (see 1906260003).
Stakeholders agree there needs to be a middle ground to regulation of emerging services that gives investors confidence in the rules, yet aren't so onerous to encumber innovation, Astroscale President Ron Lopez said. He said current rules requiring de-orbiting from low earth orbit within 25 years after a satellite's mission ends is far too long given the LEO boom that's expected. It's not clear what the right timeframe should be.
Spaceflight's Blake said reviews by agencies like the FCC were built in an era of relatively few launches a year, and there needs to be effort toward expedited reviews. Blake said an international space traffic regime "couldn't happen soon enough," because a cataclysmic space event could kill investment in the sector.
Success of the industry depends on nations commonly addressing challenges, said Deputy Commerce Secretary Karen Dunn Kelley. Andrea Thompson, State Department undersecretary-arms control and international security affairs, said an integral part of the U.S. vision for more commercial activity in space is encouraging responsible space activity. She said America wants to promote its industry and government best practices.
The tipping point where launch costs get low enough to suddenly gin up activity depends on where the payload is going, said Dan Hendrickson, Astrobotic vice president-business development. Pricing in the commercial lunar launch industry is reaching that point, and a customer base is emerging, he said. The lunar launch company's inaugural launch is set for June 2021, with a variety of clients to have payloads delivered to the moon robotically at a cost of $1.2 million per kilogram, he said.
NASA head Jim Bridenstine said the goal of astronauts returning to the moon by 2024 will require U.S. commercial partners and international partners. He said the planned commercial hub to be attached to the International Space Station could be a home to work in pharmaceuticals, materials science or R&D in 3D organ printing, and the U.S. longer-term goal is encouraging a variety of commercial space stations.