5G Seen an Eventuality for Satellite, Not in Short Term

CEOs of C-Band Alliance companies disagree whether last week's C-band public notice was an FCC signal about the CBA proposal. Eutelsat's Rodolphe Belmer thinks the PN indicates the agency wants the CBA to open its approach to others such as earth station and other satellite operators.

Intelsat's Stephen Spengler told us later the PN seems to be the FCC being thorough and getting feedback on some issues raised in the proceeding. But, he added, "precedent and the Communications Act is supportive of our position. We don't have anxiety about it." He said the CBA isn't discussing reconfiguring its proposal in light of the PN. The agency didn't comment.

Echoing Collar, Spengler said "it's going to take a while" for 5G to be broadly deployed, and, meanwhile, satellite will work with mobile operators on serving remote communities. He said advancements in small-cell technology and high-throughput satellites changed the business case so satellite now is a viable part of mobile networks. Telesat said Tuesday that trials with Vodafone and the University of Surrey showed low earth orbit satellites can effectively do backhaul transport for mobile network operators, including backhaul for 5G.

Mobile network operators don't necessarily agree on satellite's role. Sprint Director-IoT Strategy and Partner Management Akther Javid said carriers looked at satellite delivering service to some markets, but the business case didn't stack up. Spengler said the perception of satellite as an expensive niche provider is old but fair, and satellite is easier to use and cheaper now. Belmer said in two to three years, satellite will provide "fiber-like benefits ... at a price which looks like fiber."

Asked about satellite's role in IoT, Belmer said it could be "a very attractive segment for tomorrow" given the expectations of billions of connected objects. He said there won't be one technical approach that fits all needs, but options include a low earth orbit constellation of low-throughput nanosatellites or geostationary orbit satellites connecting to low-cost terminals. Collar said SES isn't focusing heavily on direct user IoT but on enabling customers to use cloud-based IoT to deliver services to their customers.

Belmer said the fight over spectrum between mobile and satellite is "a very strong concern for our industry." He said satellite loss of the C band and the 28 GHz band could be problematic for mobile operators, too, when it comes to satellite's role in mobile networks. Without that spectrum, "There will be no bridging of the digital divide," he said. Collar said the fate of the 28 GHz band was a particular concern. He said the industry "did a strong job with C band and then sat back."

Video, Spectrum

Several CEOs also said, despite sliding video revenue, they think video has a long tail.

"There's still lots and lots of strength in the video segment," but any growth is in broadband connectivity, said Telesat's Daniel Goldberg. SES keeps hitting its financial guidance and meeting expectations on its video side but is investing in its networks business because video, while still profitable, isn't growing, Collar said. He said the company expects video to generate about 50 percent of its revenue in four or so years, instead of two-thirds today. Belmer said Eutelsat expects its video business to be stable or grow over the next few years due to penetration into developing markets where over-the-top isn't as big an issue and where direct-to-home service remains resilient.

The White House should have a national spectrum strategy crafted this summer, and the "current approach of piecemeal, band-by-band spectrum policymaking is not sustainable," said NTIA Chief David Redl Monday at the Satellite Industry Association Leadership Dinner, according to prepared remarks. The event wasn't open to the media.

OneWeb CEO Adrian Steckel said Monday the company's planned mega constellation still aims at global connectivity for people across the globe, but aero and maritime likely will be the bulk of its revenue in the short term, with consumer broadband picking up after a couple of years. Though Amazon and SpaceX have similar mega-constellation plans for global connectivity, Steckel said OneWeb anticipates "maybe just one" competitor. He didn't say who. "There are advantages to everybody," he said. He said the company anticipates launching 35 satellites a month starting in Q4, with the constellation fully operational by the end of 2021. He said the company's Florida satellite production facility is due to start turning them out June 3, and will do two a day when up to full production in the fall.

Steckel said OneWeb deliberately avoided the financial structural issues like external debt that caused problems for other operators like Iridium. He said since 2015, the company's financial prospects have been improving, with it raising $3.4 billion so far, though he didn't say what the total price tag is likely to be.

Conference Notebook

"There's no secret sauce" for how the satellite industry could play a bigger role in 5G standards setting, aside from committing resources, said Balazs Bertenyi, 3rd Generation Partnership Project TSG Radio Access Network chairman. If satellite doesn't play a role, the risk is further marginalization, said Antonio Franchi, European Space Agency head-future programmes acquisition, Monday. Some satellite interests said the industry likely will be end-to-end integrated with 5G standards. Inmarsat Global Principal System Engineer Ammar Khan said "it's not a straightforward task." He said terrestrial 5G is deploying in phases, focusing on broadband first, with IoT and machine to machine to follow, and a phased approach would make sense for satellite. "Five years ago, [such integration] was unimaginable," Bertenyi said, saying such integration is welcome news for the mobile industry since mobile use cases alone won't be enough to make 5G a success. The big changes coming to the satellite industry include software defined hardware that can be reprogrammed in orbit, even to the point of changing the satellite's mission, said Lisa Callahan, Lockheed Martin general manager-commercial civil space.

Industry officials said that future will require increased cybersecurity. IBM Watson Cloud Chief Technology Officer-partner ecosystem and cognitive security Jeb Linton said satellites are a particular security challenge because a bad actor could disable one permanently, so there's a particular need for advanced security technology not commonly employed today such as secure enclaves and advanced cryptographic capabilities.