Questions Remain if Agencies' Spectrum Data Will Help NTIA Address Industry Needs

Industry officials told us this week that questions remain about how useful the reports will be, as industry seeks access to more spectrum for 5G.The documents won’t be publicly released, government officials said. Instead, NTIA may release a summary.

“This kind of long-term planning hasn’t been done before on a systemic, agency-by-agency level across the government, and our hope is that after NTIA goes through all the data, it will lead to some interesting opportunities that might not have been apparent before,” said Cinnamon Rogers, Telecommunications Industry Association senior vice president-government affairs. “Doing some long-term thinking about agency needs should be helpful going forward."

Phoenix Center President Lawrence Spiwak guesses agency submissions to NTIA "are going to continue to be cautious given that spectrum is a finite resource.” Administrations have long pushed the agencies to make clear what spectrum they’re not fully using, he said: Agencies like DOD or the National Weather Service “are very reluctant to part with what they view as mission-critical spectrum.” Getting the data in the record is “always a useful process,” Spiwak said. “The low-hanging fruit is gone.”

A November memo asked agencies to report on their “anticipated future spectrum requirements over a 15-year period.” NTIA wants to promote transparency while keeping classified and proprietary details private. The memo follows an October directive by President Donald Trump (see 1810250058).

“Difficult institutional dynamics” come into play “anytime anyone is asked to give up something valuable without compensation, and government agencies hoarding spectrum are no different,” said Phil Kerpen, president of American Commitment. “Even the 5.9 GHz spectrum that has lain fallow for 20 years could take several more years of testing before [the Department of Transportation] goes along with it being opened for non-automotive uses. Maybe agencies will diligently identify a lot of spectrum to be freed up through this current NTIA process. But if not, it would hardly be surprising.

Expect “conservative” projections from the agencies, said analyst Roger Entner of Recon Analytics. “Fifteen years is a very long time,” Entner said: “Once the spectrum has been surrendered, the departments and agencies won't get it back.”

Agencies will be reluctant to give up spectrum, experts agree.

“If you require the agencies to list out what they think their needs will be for the next 15 years, they will tend to ... overestimate,” said Kristian Stout, associate director at the International Center for Law & Economics. “Technology is changing so rapidly, and already important spectrum becomes more important as more tools shift to relying on wireless technology.”

“Historically, federal spectrum users have been extremely reticent when it comes to finding more efficient ways to use their channels,” said Robert McDowell of Cooley. “What has worked in the past to pry loose valuable frequencies are incentives. But without carrots and sticks, or executive orders to relinquish spectrum, keeping expectations low would be wise.”

About half the sub-4 GHz spectrum is dominated by federal agency use “but unlike, say, electricity, vehicle fleets, office supplies, and labor, agencies don’t pay anything approximating the market rate for the spectrum they use,” said Mercatus Center Senior Research Fellow Brent Skorup. A small amount of formerly federal spectrum, 25 MHz, sold for about $20 billion in the 2015 AWS-3 auction, he noted. “Despite the underlying value of federal spectrum, agency records of usage are incomplete and, since agencies can’t sell their spectrum to commercial users, they have little incentive to really economize on spectrum use,” he said. “Hopefully, Congress will one day allow agencies to have a bigger cut of auction proceeds so that agencies have more incentive to relinquish underused spectrum.

"It’s important to have at least some grasp on the plans for what agencies are thinking for the future, and I hope the reports yield some useful insight,” said Doug Brake, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation director-broadband and spectrum policy. “The incentives obviously aren’t there to uncover any surprise unused spectrum.”

“A long-term perspective is critical because procurement cycles tend to lock in technology and spectrum use" for a decade-plus said Michael Calabrese, New America Wireless Future Program director. Most important “is whether the administration pushes DOD, FAA and other agencies to prioritize spectrum efficiency and sharing,” he said. “While wireless connectivity is increasingly critical to the military, they cannot expect interference-free environments overseas and should be planning to rely on more dynamic spectrum solutions that accommodate band sharing at home and greater resilience globally.”