FCC Unlikely to Make More Mid-Band Spectrum Available for 5G Anytime Soon
The FCC is under increasing pressure to open more mid-band spectrum as 5G deployments start. Most agree none will be available before next year and the auction of the licensed tier of the 3.5 GHz citizens broadband radio service band. The other two main bands in focus at the FCC, 2.5 GHz and the C band, are expected to be opened after the 3.5 GHz auction. Commissioners Jessica Rosenworcel and Geoffrey Starks are leading the effort.
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It’s time for the FCC “to flip its priorities and pivot to the mid-band,” Rosenworcel told us in a Friday statement. “The United States is increasingly alone in its mission to make millimeter wave the core of its domestic 5G approach. That means we have internationally ceded leadership when it comes to mid-band spectrum.”
“The only way to truly ensure our future prosperity is to make sure that the networks powering the next wave of innovation in this country connect us all,” Starks said in a Friday statement. “We’ve focused on providing high-band spectrum, but we need to move on to mid-band and we need to do it soon. Because of its physical characteristics, mid-band spectrum is key to connecting all communities, including unserved and underserved urban and rural consumers. We cannot afford to leave anyone behind as we look to the future, and mid-band spectrum is a must-have part of the solution.”
Commissioner Brendan Carr told us finding more mid-band spectrum for 5G is “a challenge” and “something that we’re focused on solving for sure.” The FCC launched a mid-band proceeding last year and will “keep the peddle down.” Carr said of his travels across the U.S., the main concern people have is deployment of fiber and small cells. “What I hear most on the road is how do we see more of the physical infrastructure deployed,” he said. “In the real world, it’s more about how do we tread the dirt faster, how do we hang the antennas faster.”
Analysts have also started to question whether the U.S. is putting too much attention on millimeter-wave spectrum. The FCC sold 65 MHz of mid-band AWS-3 spectrum for $45 billion four years ago, noted BTIG’s Walter Piecyk. The U.S. plans its third high-band auction for December and last week completed the first stage of the 28 GHz auction (see 1904170047). The first two-high band auctions will bring in less than a total of $3 billion for 1550 MHz, Piecyk noted.
“We’re swimming in millimeter wave spectrum at a time when it is becoming clear that millimeter wave spectrum will have somewhat limited application -- stadiums and airports and convention centers, perhaps, and maybe some very dense downtown areas, but certainly not anything like ubiquitous coverage of large parts of the country,” said Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson. “For widespread 5G deployment, then, we’ll need more mid-band spectrum.” Moffett questioned whether there's a 5G race, a notion he described as “ridiculous” at worst. More mid-band “would be nice,” he said: “But there are very real issues to work through for each band in question, and rushing to conclusion out of some misplaced fear of losing a race that that no one is really running just doesn’t make sense.”
Spectrum Politics
Spectrum allocation is becoming “very political as the Democrats are bashing the FCC for doing the easy things faster than the hard things,” said free-market network architect Richard Bennett. “This is not helpful for consumers and the tech industry. This puzzle has a number of moving parts in the realms of economics, technology, and politics. The best thing we can do is tamp down the politics and focus on resolving the ownership claims to the mid-band.”
Bennett sees the 2.5 GHz band as potentially coming online first, but notes the U.S. faces some unique challenges. “Our military is a very intense and advanced user of spectrum,” he said. “Our stakeholder process has to include the generals as well as the technologists and the business people. This is unlikely to change anytime soon, but ubiquitous, high-speed 5G is going to be a 20-year process.”
“In the historical arc of spectrum allocations, the AWS-3 auction was not that long ago,” said Robert McDowell of Cooley. “That was followed by the 600 MHz auction. So it’s not surprising that higher frequencies would be receiving most of the subsequent attention for a while, especially given the IoT applications of millimeter wave. Every band will have its day.”
“The U.S. is behind in the 3.5 GHz band, but far ahead in millimeter-wave,” said Roger Entner of Recon Analytics. “The U.S. will probably be the first country with nationwide 5G coverage, but in low bands that don't offer an eye popping speed difference.”
As FCC Chairman Ajit Pai has said, “we have an early lead in 5G deployments,” said Claude Aiken, president of the Wireless ISP Association. “At the same time, existing licensed spectrum is lying fallow in rural America today. With FCC decisions on mid-band spectrum looming, we have a golden opportunity to put rural America first, leveraging spectrum policy to enable robust investment and opportunity for small businesses to provide broadband and digital opportunity to millions.”
The “race for 5G” seems to be “something invented by carriers to get more spectrum,” said Peter Tannenwald of Fletcher Heald: Carriers need mid-band “only because millimeter wave frequencies propagate over such small distances that they are good only in densely populated areas.” CTIA didn't comment.