Bogdan-Martin Seen Facing Uphill Climb to a Top ITU Job
Geopolitics could be a big hurdle for Doreen Bogdan-Martin's candidacy to be director of ITU's Development Sector, watchers and even supporters say. Since a representative of a developing nation, usually from Africa, always has held the seat, the odds of her being elected "are somewhere between zero and none," emailed Tony Rutkowski, who previously worked in the ITU secretariat. He said that history is one reason the U.S. and other developed nations generally haven't fielded candidates.
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If elected, Bodgan-Martin would become the highest-ranking woman in ITU history. Observers see the director's job as a possible gateway to still higher office there. Others aren't giving up hope on her bid.
The one -- albeit unlikely -- scenario where she wins is if Malcolm Johnson of the U.K. loses his re-election bid as deputy secretary-general to the challenger from Burkina Faso, Brahima Sanou, Rutkowski said. Since the Development Sector election comes afterward, and ITU elections are sequential, the Republic of the Congo candidate for Development Sector secretary, Jean Philemon Kissangou, would likely lose to maintain regional balance, he said.
FCC Commissioner Mike O'Rielly, who has said the U.S. must be given more of an ITU leadership role, said the organization should approve the U.S. candidate. “Bogdan-Martin is qualified for the position and would bring a fresh, but experienced, voice,” O’Rielly told us. “While I have not been involved in the Plenipotentiary process, the international community would be wrong to not take any U.S. candidate seriously.”
"Geopolitics will always enter the picture," said Leslie Martinkovics, U.S. ITU Association chairman. The U.S. traditionally hasn't pushed candidates for the slot, and few Americans have held senior ITU elected positions, but the D-Sector directorship election comes as the drive to 5G is seen likely affecting nations' economies, he said. The U.S. sees Bogdan-Martin as having a deep ITU resume and experience dealing with the private sector and other nations, plus a good understanding of nascent technologies, with that expertise potentially transcending geopolitical anchors, he said: "She's the right person at the right time."
Martinkovics said that in talks with senior government officials from other regions in recent months, "there's more openness than I have sensed in the past. I'm cautiously optimistic."
"Geopolitics of the ITU are really complicated," said NTIA Administrator David Redl, who endorsed Bogdan-Martin, as has FCC Chairman Ajit Pai (see 1803130029). "But we really think ... she can go the distance" based on her experience, particularly on connectivity issues, he said. "Our administration has put its full support behind Doreen," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in June at the NTIA Spectrum Policy Symposium. "She is well versed in U.S. policy objectives, and has championed our pro-growth and pro-competition satellite policies."
An adviser to numerous U.S. ITU delegations and Bogdan-Martin supporter said the candidate's demonstrated credibility and capabilities in areas like connectivity -- an issue of interest to developing nations -- could carry weight. The adviser said support of the candidate shouldn't mean the U.S. has less political capital for policy issues of importance to it, as the two aren't an "either/or" proposition. Elections are the first week of the plenipotentiary, and substantive policy issues are done over the three weeks, the adviser said.
Redl hopes Bogdan-Martin's candidacy is "a relatively easy sell" to the rest of the Inter-American Telecommunication Commission: "It seems our CITEL colleagues are supportive." He said the Commerce and State departments have been doing individual country outreach worldwide to try to secure votes.
Bogdan-Martin "is very well qualified," said Gary Fishman, U.S. ITU Association board member. He said regional balance is always an issue, but there also are more elected positions than regions.
“The ITU is far from a perfect institution and a lot of the criticism it gets is deserved, but there are so many reasons why continued U.S. engagement with the ITU is important,” said Doug Brake, director-spectrum policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. “The ITU is considering ill-advised forays into [over-the-top] regulation, satellite and high-altitude platforms are seeing a spike in interest, spectrum harmonization is as important as ever, plus ITU influence is increasingly important as telecom networks and supply chains grow increasingly global.”
This comes as the Trump administration has indicated disfavor with multilateral and international bodies and agreements. "I would be naive to say that's not going to be an issue," Martinkovics said, but Bogdan-Martin's strengths should mean "a good chance people will give her a good look with clear eyes.” Experts told us the closed election process, with secret balloting, also could help. Rutkowski said U.S. unpopularity internationally after criticizing multilateral organizations and trimming back involvement in intergovernmental bodies is "almost certainly a factor" in the election. The U.S. "doesn't have a lot of political capital," he said.
Some campaigning is done formally, but much is informal, experts said. Martinkovics said Bogdan-Martin will be in Malaysia this week for an Asia-Pacific Telecommunity meeting, and the U.S. will host a reception in her honor at the Plenipotentiary before the vote. Between such efforts and already sizable U.S. government outreach, he said, "We should be in pretty good shape."