Net Neutrality CRA Supporters Eye Republicans Amid Push for House Vote

At least one incumbent facing a tough re-election battle in November -- Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo. -- told us he's reconsidering his earlier opposition to the measure.

Active campaigning for House Republicans' support for the CRA resolution is “going to start in earnest very shortly,” said House Communications Subcommittee ranking member Mike Doyle, D-Pa., the lead sponsor of the House version of the CRA resolution (House Joint Resolution-129), in an interview. Members likely will “be hearing from their constituents” on the resolution during the short Memorial Day week recess, he said. “There’s nothing more influential on a member than hearing from his constituents,” especially for members “who are trying to get millennials to the polls,” since Democrats believe net neutrality is a top political issue for voters in that age group, Doyle said.

“This is starting to look like it’s doable," Doyle said. "All we need to do is get 25 Republicans to sign on to the discharge petition,” which Doyle opened up earlier this month (see 1805180049), to force a floor vote. Supporters need the signatures of a bare House majority -- 218 members -- to successfully use the discharge petition. It has the support of 124 members -- all Democrats. The Senate discharge petition needed 30 signers to take effect; it easily surpassed that threshold (see 1805080066).

“We’re not targeting” specific House members in either party as potential CRA supporters, “we’re targeting everyone,” Doyle said. “You’re going to see a grassroots effort in all 435 congressional districts.” But if “you’re in a competitive election campaign” and “you have a large bloc of voters in your district that this is important to and they want you to vote in favor of it, then I think that would have an effect” on a lawmaker’s decision, Doyle said. Senate Communications Subcommittee ranking member Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, believes vulnerable House Republicans should be supporters’ top targets. “Any member who wants to demonstrate their independence” from GOP leadership “has a great opportunity to do so with this” measure, he told us. “It has the added benefit of being popular everywhere.”

Getting to 218

Doyle and other CRA supporters are “going to have trouble” getting signatures from 218 members for the discharge petition “and they know it,” said House Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore. “I don’t think [net neutrality] is a big enough political issue” that it would affect any vulnerable GOP incumbent’s stance on the CRA resolution, though “I think the Democrats think it is.”

House Communications Chairman Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., pointed to continued voter confusion about the true meaning of net neutrality as evidence there won’t be added pressure on vulnerable incumbents. “If you are talking to a group and you say ‘define net neutrality,’ you’ll get five or six different definitions of what it is,” she said. “What people will tell you is when it comes to privacy and internet governance, they want one set of rules for the entire internet ecosystem,” which she's aiming to enact via her Open Internet Preservation Act (HR-4682). That bill would bar blocking and throttling but includes no ban on paid prioritization (see 1712190062).

Communications sector officials and lobbyists noted the potential effect the midterm election campaign could have on House GOP support for the resolution. The campaign could “have a real impact on political pressure” incumbent Republicans face on the net neutrality issue, as the incumbent party in either house of Congress always faces the prospect of making “concessions on issues they don't want to fight on,” said Electronic Frontier Foundation Legislative Counsel Ernesto Falcon. But the prime targets for GOP support for the CRA measure won't necessarily be those House members who are “particularly vulnerable in the midterms,” because it matters more “who is talking” to specific lawmakers.

Coffman Targeted

Coffman told us he's now reconsidering his position on the CRA resolution and is “not opposing it” for now. During a February speech, the representative said the measure was “a nonstarter” and criticized the rescission order, which he previously opposed (see 1712120037 and 1802070051).

Coffman's reconsideration of the resolution doesn't mean he has abandoned work on his long-planned 21st Century Internet Act, which he touted in February as a potential legislative compromise on net neutrality, an aide told us. “We're still working on it, working with as many industry leaders as we can to get common ground,” Coffman said. “We're on track to introduce it this summer.”

Coffman and his aide didn’t comment on what influenced his shifting position on the resolution. Coffman spoke to us last week, before a Tuesday Fight for the Future-organized protest outside the congressman’s Aurora, Colorado, district office urging him to support the measure. The group said its protest highlighted small businesses in Coffman’s suburban Denver district that have signed letters in support of the CRA. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified Coffman as one of its earliest prime targets for the 2018 election and many race trackers rate the contest a tossup against either of Coffman’s Democratic challengers. Coffman won re-election in 2016 by 8 percentage points but his congressional district voted for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by nine.

“We’ve already started seeing” groups like FFTF target vulnerable House Republicans in their push for the measure, though it’s “not organic pressure” but instead a coordinated push by groups “funded by Silicon Valley," said anti-“tech left” group Free Our Internet Executive Director Christie-Lee McNally. “I’m not so sure” that pressure will influence any vulnerable House Republicans’ stance on the resolution, in part because net neutrality is “not something that rises to the level” of importance for voters as other national issues, she said.

Democrats “have overplayed their hand” on net neutrality” and could face a “huge reckoning” on election night if CRA opponents are able to effectively communicate what a return to the 2015 rules would mean, McNally said.

Experts' Views

Experts divided on the extent to which net neutrality or any other particular policy issue would factor into Coffman’s re-election bid and by extension his votes.

The contest has gotten significant national attention because of how competitive it is, which on its face makes Coffman “somewhat more likely to be focusing on issues with national implications,” said University of Denver Center on American Politics Director Seth Masket. But there has been a general “trend in recent years toward a greater nationalization of congressional races,” which are becoming increasingly “less tied to the local community.”

“I don't think net neutrality will factor much into the race for Coffman's House seat,” said University of Colorado-Boulder political science associate professor Anand Sokhey. “It simply isn't the kind of issue that's likely to be a big political point going into the midterm elections.” The 2018 election, like other midterms, will more likely “be a referendum on the sitting president's party,” in this case President Donald Trump’s Republicans, Sokhey said: “That dynamic is conditioned by things like perceptions of the economy, broader scandals” and “the level of enthusiasm among core partisans.” The degree to which the re-election campaign could affect Coffman’s position on net neutrality could hinge on whether Denver’s major tech sector presence spills over into the congressman’s suburban district, Masket said. “It could be a more salient issue for him” if it’s an important issue for “the voters [Coffman is] trying to win over,” either those “who might be on the fence or are potentially more conservative,” Masket said.

Partisans on net neutrality tend to cite polls favorable to their leanings.

McNally highlighted a February American Action Network-commissioned poll that found 22 percent of the 1,010 surveyed voters polled said they were very familiar with the concept of net neutrality and 46 percent believed the 2015 rules equally applied to ISPs and edge providers. Supporters of the 2015 rules have cited other recent polls, including a May Morning Consult/Politico poll that found 51 percent of the 1,990 surveyed registered voters see a candidate’s stance on the 2015 rules as a somewhat or very important factor in their decision on whom they will vote for in November's elections. That poll found 57 percent of respondents who identified themselves as moderate said net neutrality support would be a major factor in their vote preference. Sixty-six percent of self-identified liberals and 42 percent of self-identified conservatives said it would be very or somewhat important.