Mexican NAFTA Chief Negotiator Says Deal Likely by First Week of May
Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo said he sees an 80 percent likelihood that an agreement in principle on NAFTA can be reached by the first week of May. Guajardo, Mexico's chief NAFTA negotiator, had just returned from Washington, where he, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland talked for several days. While speaking on a Mexican news show April 9, he acknowledged that there had been some thought that a deal could be reached by April 13, but negotiations are not moving fast enough to reach a definitive conclusion by then. He told the reporters that "Mexico is compromising day by day," and that the ministers are working all the time to reach an agreement.
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He noted that the U.S. proposal to require that autos have 50 percent U.S. content to retain NAFTA duty-free status has been adjusted, and now emphasizes that rewarding wages of $15 an hour is the goal (see 1803290020). Guajardo said clearly Mexican autoworkers do not make that much money, but that is an aspirational path for Mexico -- "however, at the same time, it's not achievable in the short run." Guajardo said this proposal, because it no longer has that U.S.-only content goal, "allows us to accommodate the objective a bit better." However, he said it's strange that U.S. automakers are not yet on board with this idea. "How are you going to sell a solution that doesn't have the support of industry members?"
While Lighthizer has talked about the Mexican political calendar as a motivation to conclude NAFTA soon -- there will be a presidential election there July 1 -- Guajardo said it's the midterms in the U.S. that are pushing Lighthizer to finish. He said if the discussion goes past the first week of May, it will be too late to hold a congressional vote this year on a revised NAFTA. And, he said, next year's Congress would radically change the nature of what's negotiated. He said that the deadline should create the willingness to compromise, which he said is necessary to reach agreement.
Guajardo said that even though Mexico is unhappy with the president's decision to send National Guard troops to the border, that is not affecting negotiations. "You cannot stop this process," he said, and noted that a technical group from Mexico remained in Washington.