Satcom Mobility Sees Big Growth, Big Interference Challenges
Exploding demand for satellite communications mobility services -- driven by high-throughput satellites (HTS) and growing use of very small aperture terminals (VSAT) -- comes in the nick of time for a challenged satcom industry, Euroconsult Principal Adviser Susan Irwin said Thursday at a Global VSAT Forum conference. "Mobility is really a lifesaver." Mobile satcom growth also is leading to increased interference, an issue the industry is "trying to get its arms around," David Hartshorn, Global VSAT Forum (GVF) secretary general, told us.
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In-flight connectivity growth is expected to be "extraordinary," with revenue growing from $525 million in 2012 to $4.4 billion by 2025, Irwin said. Most of the 2025 revenue will come via Ku- and Ka-bands, with HTS the biggest driver, she said. There are about 3,900 connected aircraft in North America, expected to grow to about 7,700 by 2025, she said, and Europe will go from 455 to 5,500 and Asia-Pacific from about 360 to nearly 6,300 in that time.
Mobile satellite service terminals have 96 percent of the maritime market, but VSAT adoption is expected to grow notably through 2025 because of HTS and flat-panel antennas, Irwin said. She said HTS capacity likely will open up new maritime markets, with streaming and cloud computing becoming the norm on watercraft. But the maritime market is seeing significant investment now even before significant HTS capacity enters the market, in the form of ships upgrading from narrowband L-band connections to VSAT, said Globecomm Chief Commercial Officer Bryan McGuirk. Only about 15 percent of ships now are connected via VSAT, he said.
Satcom mobility-related interference issues have numerous causes, from improper installation, maintenance or operation of transmitting earth station equipment, to more manufacturers -- "with varying degrees of proficiency" -- getting into the VSAT business, Hartshorn said. "We are a victim of our own success." Along with increased training efforts that GVF has helped spearhead, Hartshorn said, more satellite operators are instituting qualification and type approval standards that equipment suppliers have to meet.
Numerous satellite industry experts and insiders are bullish on prospects one or more of the low earth orbit (LEO) mega-constellations that have been announced (see 1606230050, 1609060012 and 1506260025) will come to fruition. Citing O3b, McGuirk said the LEO business case has proven itself but LEO constellations still need to clear a hurdle of landing the large financing they require. Kymeta Chief Commercial Officer Bill Marks said the connected car market likely will also be a big driver of LEO constellations, saying it's likely at least two to three of the mega LEO constellations that have been announced will end up in operation. Proposed LEO mega-constellations like OneWeb "are a must" since there isn't enough existing capacity to deal with the demand from applications like connected cars, Marks said.
The LEO boom doesn't mean satellite operators will abandon geostationary satellites, multiple industry experts said. Satellite operators "are not going to let orbital slots go to waste," said Eric Watko, vice president-integrated solutions and space systems for satellite communications firm iDirect. Irwin said Euroconsult is forecasting continued geostationary growth, and though some larger operators won't replace all their satellites, smaller and national operators will still invest in geostationary. Meanwhile, Irwin said, overall geostationary bandwidth will be "increasing exponentially" due to HTS. Marks said geostationary satellites will be important to the connected car market, with Toyota, for example, anticipating using widebeams to send software and firmware updates to its tens of millions of vehicles worldwide simultaneously.