Additional 350 MHz of Licensed Spectrum Needed To Meet Mobile Broadband Demand, Says Report for CTIA
By 2019, the U.S. will need more than 350 MHz additional licensed spectrum to support projected commercial mobile wireless demand, said a study prepared for CTIA by The Brattle Group. The forecast uses the FCC’s formula and approach to update the projected licensed spectrum deficit from five years ago, it said. The FCC said by 2014 the licensed spectrum deficit would be 300 MHz, which means over the next five years the U.S. must increase its existing supply of licensed broadband spectrum by over 50 percent, the report said. CTIA said recently only 135 MHz of the 300 MHz goal the FCC National Broadband Plan called to be cleared had been cleared (see 1506230014).
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The 350 MHz additional licensed spectrum is the key to the U.S. remaining a global mobile leader, CTIA said Wednesday. "Since the FCC released its spectrum plan five years ago to meet the escalating demand for mobile broadband, American consumers fully embraced a connected life," said CEO Meredith Baker in a written statement. "We now need to execute on a new five year plan to identify and re-allocate over 350 MHz of new spectrum for licensed mobile broadband services to ensure that the U.S. will continue its global leadership in wireless."
While it’s clear to most that more spectrum is needed, analyst Roger Entner of Recon Analytics told us the amount of extra spectrum can only be assumed until there is a slowdown in demand for data. He's confident the number will be higher than the recommended 350 MHz. Sympathetic listeners in the FCC understand the need for more spectrum, but it’s not clear whether that will continue to be discussed after the next auction, he said. “The expectations with what the incentive auction will raise are very difficult to reconcile with reality, even though undoubtedly there is significant demand for spectrum,” Entner said. “We can only hope that we identify the spectrum and actually bring it to the hands of, ultimately, the consumer.” An NAB spokesman declined to comment.
Others don’t agree with CTIA’s call for more spectrum. This attempt to “renew the effort to bring more licensed spectrum to market” is designed to distract from CTIA’s own release of its year-end 2014 wireless industry survey results last week, which showed U.S. mobile data traffic grew only 26 percent last year compared with growth of 120 percent in 2013, a dramatic slowdown that CTIA ignores, said telecom and satellite consultant Tim Farrar in a blog post Wednesday. FCC mobile data traffic growth projections have proven to be overstated, he said. Likely reasons include the increasing utilization of Wi-Fi and the effect of dilution, as late adopters of smartphones use far fewer apps and less data than early adopters, Farrar said.
The Brattle Group report factored in unlicensed offload and increased investment by carriers in network technology and infrastructure. A deficit of licensed spectrum remains that totals over 350 MHz -- an amount that's a 54 percent increase over the amount of currently licensed spectrum, CTIA said. "More cell sites and carrier deployment of new technologies will help address the mobile data demand in coming years, and wireless carriers invested almost $150 billion in them over the last five years, but even with the use of conservative traffic projections, this report illustrates that policymakers must act quickly to free up more licensed spectrum," said Coleman Bazelon, Brattle Group principal.