House GOP Unveils Path Forward for Trade Votes

The House Rules Committee gave the go-ahead to vote on all four trade bills on June 10, following a long hearing with House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Ranking Member Sandy Levin, D-Mich., and several other lawmakers who urged votes on amendments. The committee rejected votes on nearly 70 amendments, including a number of Republican measures (here). Committee Democrats, including ranking member Louise Slaughter, D-N.Y., and Jim McGovern, D-Mass., railed against the Republican handling of the legislation. Slaughter, a vocal critic of U.S. trade policy on Capitol Hill and TPA in particular (see 1503050017), said during the hearing she was "eager to vote ‘no’ on this.”

But following the hearing, the full House will now vote on the preference package under unanimous consent rules, which means there will be no amendments allowed on the legislation. Rules Committee Republicans, who make up nine of the 13 committee seats, voted unanimously to limit debate and remove other procedural obstacles on the TPA/TAA package, while paving the way for separate votes on those two bills. The committee also approved a similar framework for Customs Reauthorization, which will get a vote if the TPA/TAA package is passed. If the customs bill passes, the House will ask to go to conference with the Senate over the legislation, the committee said.

Many trade experts suspect House leadership is nearing the amount of votes necessary to pass the trade bills, drawing from leadership’s scheduling of the votes and reports of progress in building support (see 1506100025). One lobbyist said even if the TPA/TAA votes fail on June 12, lawmakers will “make more deals and then pass it.” Another industry lobbyist said it’s unclear if leadership has the votes confirmed to pass TPA, but Democrats are still in contention for “yes” votes. Leadership is “holding their whip count very close,” said that lobbyist. “There are several gettable Democrats in addition to the 20 or 21 who have already come out. I’m optimistic more will come.”

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, signaled a cautious tone on June 10. “Trade votes are never an easy lift around here, but Republicans are continuing to work and we’re seeing some positive momentum in the right direction,” said Boehner in a statement (here). “It’s time for both parties to get engaged in this to try to make sure it’s passed so that we can continue to expand our economy, expand incomes in our country.” The National Foreign Trade Council, Business Roundtable and a range of other business and industry groups pushed lawmakers to jump on board on the trade bills in letters and statements.

The TPA vote is still uncertain, and Democrats continue to resist, Levin told a small group of reporters after his Rules Committee testimony. Among House Democrats, “the feelings are overwhelming this TPA doesn’t cut it, and those that think it does is a small, small minority,” Levin said. He lambasted the bicameral TPA bill as lacking any real enforcement mechanisms, and again called the negotiating objectives in that legislation “meaningless and vague.” Levin also urged Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions, R-Texas, to allow a vote on Levin’s alternate TPA bill, but the committee ultimately rejected that request. Levin floated a draft of that legislation in April (see 1504280066).

Many House Democrats are also continuing to fight against the Medicare offsets in TAA. Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., filed an amendment at the Rules Committee to replace the text of the Senate-passed preference package, HR-1295 (here), with a new version of the legislation (here). That new version includes a provision to strike the TAA Medicare cuts. “This approach is designed to address concerns raised by Democrat members of Congress on the use of Medicare cuts in the TAA offset, while still allowing both TPA and TAA to go directly to the president’s desk for his signature,” said Mayer Brown senior trade advisor Warren Payne.

That strategy may not appease House Democrats, however, said one Democratic staffer. “It's a trap. Democrats are still on record for voting to cut Medicare,” said the staffer. “Republicans use that vote against us. [It] wouldn't be the first time it happened.” If the TAA vote falls short, leadership will not be able to send TPA to President Barack Obama because the Senate passed the two bills in one package, HR-1314 (here).

The AFL-CIO also derided the cuts in a letter to House members on June 10, making a similar argument on the impact of the Democratic votes. “You should vote no because, for the first time, the TAA program would be funded by a cut in Medicare,” said AFL-CIO government affairs director William Samuel in a letter. “We understand that the pay-for could be changed in a separate vote in the African Growth and Opportunity Act that you will cast at a different time. But Members would still be on record for cutting Medicare—and promises to fix legislative concerns through other vehicles that require additional Senate action often prove illusory.” The preference package includes renewals for AGOA, the Generalized System of Preference and two Haiti tariff preference level programs.

The House is expected to “handily” pass the preference package on June 11, and Democratic opposition to TAA would be “hypocritical,” said one lobbyist, referring to the general support on that side of the aisle for TAA legislation. If Democrats shoot down TAA, “they’ll be on record voting against TAA even though they’ve been insisting on it this whole time; it’s unbelievable,” said the lobbyist. “It has caused people to whip TAA more than they planned.”

Following the House vote on the preferences, lawmakers aim to send that legislation back to the Senate, McCarthy said. Ryan earlier predicted the two sides would go to conference over preferences (see 1506040066). The road ahead looks strong despite the moving parts, said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, on June 11. “Everyone seems pretty confident that this is all going to work as it’s been laid out,” he said. “That could all change though.”