Future of Iranian Cyberthreat Discussed
Details and the wider impact the P5+1 negotiations with Iran may have on the world are still emerging, but as the U.S. moves closer to establishing a less antagonistic relationship with Iran some are questioning how Iran will use its cyber capabilities, said PricewaterhouseCoopers Forensic Technology Practice Director Neal Pollard Wednesday at an Atlantic Council panel on the future of the Iranian cyberthreat.
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The P5+1 negotiations “won’t solve all issues” among Iran, the U.S. and its allies, said retired Marine Gen. James Jones Jr., founder of Jones Group International. If an accord is reached this summer, the U.S. and Iran will remain deeply distrustful and opposed on many fronts, Jones said. Iranian hostility in cyberspace won’t be changed by a nuclear contract, and -- depending on what happens with the negotiations -- Iran could become inflamed, increasing cyber risks in the Middle Eastern region, he said. The U.S., Israel and other allies should prepare for a more aggressive cyber conflict with Iran, Jones said. Iranian leadership invested heavily in cyber capabilities and sees cyber as another space to challenge the U.S. and Israel, which is why Iranian cyber capabilities are a serious matter, he said.
Cyber operations are not separate from military operations, said CrowdStrike Senior Intelligence Analyst Andretta Towner. Cyber capabilities are something a country will want to “build up” just like any other military resource or capability, Towner said, as it’s important to “stay cutting edge and stay prepared,” she said. Instead of looking at whether a nation has cyber capabilities, it’s important to look at how willing a country is to use them, Towner said. Based on Iran’s history it’s likely the nation will use its cyber capabilities internally, but may not use cyber capabilities externally unless it needs to, she said.
“At least some of the cyber skirmishes going on between the U.S. and Iran, and Iran and the Saudis, have been reduced" since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, as the country looks forward to the easing of sanctions and the ability to use the Internet more commercially than in the past, said Barbara Slavin, nonresident senior fellow for the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. Iran is “one of the most wired countries in the Middle East,” she said. Between 70 and 80 percent of the population is connected to the Internet in some way, she said. Last month it was reported that about 1 million IP addresses had been purchased in the past month, so now the country has 11 million IP addresses, Slavin said. In comparison, the U.S. has 1.6 billion IP addresses, she said.
“Iran is aggressively using cyber capabilities as an offensive tool,” said JD Work, research director at the Cyber Conflict Documentation Project. Iran has violated many international norms surrounding cyber operations, he said, such as attacking the financial sector. Slavin said if Iran were no longer sanctioned it likely wouldn’t attack international markets, but Work disagreed. Towner said Iran could currently use cyber capabilities to get information about ongoing negotiations and other political agenda topics such as Syria’s battle against ISIS.