Smartphones, Wearables Cited Among Drivers for Mobile Growth, in Latest Cisco Forecast
Smartphones will become the majority type of cellphone globally by 2018, driving continued growth in smart device technology that's predicted to account for 97 percent of global mobile data usage by 2019, Cisco said Tuesday in its annual mobile data forecast. Smart devices like smartphones and tablets currently account for 88 percent of mobile data usage, Cisco said. The number of smartphones is expected to be 4.6 billion by 2019, at which point there will be 3.1 billion feature phones, the company said. Cisco forecasts that mobile data usage will grow to 292 exabytes -- 292 billion gigabytes -- annually by 2019, up from the 30 exabytes of data transmitted during 2014.
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The rise in mobile data usage will stem in part from a rise in the number of mobile data users, which will grow to 5.2 billion in 2019, from the 4.3 billion people estimated at the end of 2014, Cisco said. There will be about 11.5 billion total mobile connections in 2019 -- 8.3 billion personal mobile connections and 3.2 billion machine-to-machine connections, Cisco said. There were 7.4 billion total mobile connections at the end of 2014, the company said. Mobile data usage also is expected to increase because of the rising use of video on mobile devices, with video forecast to be 72 percent of all mobile data usage by 2019, Cisco said. Video was responsible for 55 percent of mobile data traffic in 2014.
Mobile data usage increases also will signal growing usage of other mobile technologies, including Voice-over-Wi-Fi (VoWi-Fi), the mobile cloud and wearable devices, Cisco said. The number of wearable devices is forecast to increase fivefold by 2019 to 578 million, from 109 million devices in 2014, the company said. Wearable devices’ use of mobile data will grow 18-fold by 2019, with most mobile data from wearables channeled through smartphones. VoWi-Fi traffic will exceed Voice over LTE (VoLTE) traffic by 2017, when VoWi-Fi traffic will be 10.8 petabytes per year and VoLTE traffic 10.7 petabytes per year, Cisco said. Mobile cloud traffic is forecast to increase 11-fold by 2019 to 21.8 exabytes per month, from 2 exabytes per month in 2014, Cisco said.
Rising mobile data usage also will increase dependence on data offloading to Wi-Fi hot spots and small cells, Cisco said. Fifty-four percent of mobile data traffic will offload onto Wi-Fi and small cells, vs. 46 percent in 2014, the company said. The compound annual growth rate for mobile data usage will be 57 percent through 2019, but would rise to 65 percent without offload, Cisco said.
The Cisco report is “a good indicator of just how much traffic there is ahead and how we need to prepare now to make sure that the folks running the networks have all the resources they can to meet this growing consumer demand,” said Mobile Future Executive Director Allison Remsen. “It’s a good indicator for all policymakers in this space of how much further down the road we need to be looking to address spectrum needs on the horizon. If we think we’re seeing sharp demand now, there’s still a big leap ahead.” Mobile data usage in North America is expected to reach 3.8 exabytes per month by 2019 on a forecast 47 percent compound annual growth rate. Cisco said. The Asia-Pacific region’s mobile data usage in 2019 is forecast to be 9.5 exabytes per month on a 58 percent compound annual growth rate, Cisco said.
PCIA President Jonathan Adelstein said in a statement that “even under the most optimistic scenarios, the amount of new spectrum coming on line in the next five years is nowhere near enough to accommodate the explosive growth rates Cisco predicts.” But he said President Barack Obama’s administration, the FCC and Congress have “taken steps to remove barriers and encourage the deployment of wireless networks.” The FCC didn’t comment. Further work is needed to increase spectrum availability in the U.S. to meet increasing demand, “whether it’s in the incentive auctions or through repurposing government spectrum,” Remsen told us.
Cisco’s reports have “consistently highlighted Americans' current and future demand for mobile-connected lives, which only underscores the importance of freeing up more spectrum for wireless broadband,” said CTIA Vice President-Regulatory Affairs Scott Bergmann in a statement. “More exclusive-use spectrum will mean faster and more robust wireless networks, as well as continued investment and economic growth.”
Cisco said it uses independent analyst forecasts and real-world data usage studies as a basis for its report, and then creates its “own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into” the forecast. Cisco’s previous forecasts came under criticism from the NAB in August, when the group sent industry reporters a paper co-authored by a University of Southern California doctoral student in an attempt to show that “inaccurate estimates” about future data usage demand could lead to poor public policy decisions. Cisco said then that it stood by its forecasts and accompanying research (see report in the Aug. 26, 2014, issue). An NAB spokesman declined to comment on Cisco’s latest forecast.