Satellite Industry Questions Data Used to Forecast IMT Spectrum Needs for WRC-15

Satellite companies are questioning the data used in the ITU-Radiocommunication (ITU-R) speculator tool, the spectrum calculator offered by the ITU to estimate future spectrum needs. As a result of the latest information presented to the tool, the ITU projects that 1960 MHz should be cleared for worldwide use of IMT services by 2020. Many satellite officials have called that an “overestimation.” People claim the inputs to the model, which has been used to drive a good amount of the formal discussion, are implausible, said Ethan Lavan, director-in-orbit resources at Eutelsat. There’s a question of the volume of population density used to represent the different geographies, he said. “You wouldn’t dimension infrastructure for a highway for the busiest day of an event which occurs in a major metropolitan area once or twice a year. ... It would be like putting a 500-lane highway through a central metropolitan area so people can get to a musical or sporting event without any delay.” It’s an unrealistic expectation, he said.

The speculator model assesses data in terms of traffic per square kilometer, but it doesn’t question how many square kilometers of a particular environment there are, said Tim Farrar, a satellite analyst. “If all you're talking about are a few square kilometers in a particular area, then why set the demand for spectrum for the entire country based on that?”

The input data are “grossly exaggerated levels” of assumed traffic used to determine the amount of spectrum that would be needed, said Gerry Oberst, SES senior vice president-global regulatory & governmental strategy. “They were taking the highest level of data consumption that might be in the most congested areas and projecting that as the input that would give you a model for the spectrum needed all around the world.” That’s seeking to warehouse spectrum, he said.

The European Broadcasting Union cautioned against accepting the spectrum estimated through the ITU-R tool. If the WRC-15 decides to satisfy these requirements, “the incumbent users of the affected frequency bands will have to be displaced,” it said in a technical review last month (http://bit.ly/1hlS9rv). There would be an adverse impact on terrestrial broadcasting, satellite services and society in general, it said. Areas with a high demand for mobile services are likely to require more spectrum than areas with a lower demand, it said. But “there is no correlation between geographically separated areas in terms of their respective spectrum requirements,” it said.

Concerns to be Considered

The concerns about the assumptions used in the estimation process will be considered further at a June meeting of an ITU-R study group, an ITU spokesman said. It’s important for ITU and other groups, like the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System Forum and the European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations, and stakeholders to agree on anticipated requirements for spectrum, “whether that be for IMT or any other communications system,” the ITU spokesman said. The ITU-R studies benefit from the participation of all interested parties, including national regulators, equipment manufacturers and network operators, he said.

UMTS Forum last reported in 2011 that the specific benefits of the C band for satellite services have diminished since WRC-07 “with the rise of alternative satellite services in the Ka and Ku bands.” Fiber connectivity is increasing around the globe, “providing in many countries an alternative to many satellite services traditionally held in the C-band for Internet access,” it said in its report (http://bit.ly/1mUGqCl).

Some in the IMT community claim that fiber is sufficient all around, but the fiber doesn’t go that far inland in Africa, SES’s Oberst said. For many in equatorial regions and emerging nations, the C band is the only reliable frequency because other bands suffer from interference, he said. Fiber is a good tool, “but to get to many places, you have to rely on satellite and it’s the most efficient approach,” he added. Gonzalo de Dios, Intelsat assistant general counsel, agreed the C band is essential to certain regions: “They cannot get that reliability of communications in Ku or Ka.” People must show that they have businesses that depend on this frequency band, he said. “If you can’t replace those needs, then what is the purpose of this agenda item?”

The satellite and IMT industries have worked on complex issues in the past and they are working more closely than ever, said Grant Seiffert, TIA president. TIA members include companies in the satellite, wireless and fiber ecosystem. “All members would agree that the value of spectrum has certainly increased and there are great opportunities for those citizens being served in all countries around the world.” This is a normal ramp-up to a very important meeting, he said: “There’s going to be a lot of positioning, but I don’t see that as a problem right now."

There’s going to be some tough decisions made, Seiffert said. To achieve ubiquitous broadband in the U.S. and globally, there has to be enough spectrum to satisfy all those demands on the network and it’s of economic interest that more spectrum is driven to deploy broadband infrastructure, he said. “People will have to compromise and listen and hopefully at the end of the day there'll be some positive results.” The environment is still very difficult for co-existence, said de Dios. Global allocation in the C band will be very difficult, “because you'll have to exclude one service for the benefit of another,” he said. “That’s not sharing, it’s segmentation."

Much Work Left

The satellite industry began its preparation for WRC-15 several years ago, but there’s still much to do before the conference, executives said. It’s possible to develop mobile terrestrial applications without the sacrifice of critical and essential services, particularly in the C band, Eutelsat’s Lavan said. “We have to show that there is use of C band and that it’s continuing to develop, and that investment is increasing.” The industry has to show why it’s critical for services to remain in the C band due to its unique characteristics, and the differences in technical characteristics between IMT services and satellite services must be noted to address the suggestion of sharing in the band, he said. It’s time for a more aggressive campaign, said Intelsat’s de Dios: “We're educating many member countries about what has been going on and what our studies have found out."

Oberst said there’s a fight against IMT interests for the preservation of satellite services in the C band: “We're one of the main users of radio frequencies that they're casting jealous eyes on.” It’s getting more attention now and policymakers have to confront this, he said: “There has not been a good cost-benefit analysis of the claimed spectrum needs and it looks like the data that supports it is flawed. ... You just can’t make global policy on that basis."

It’s important to note that there are synergies between the IMT and satellite industries, Lavan said. “We don’t see that there needs to be a fight with a winner or a loser. ... There should be a means for both sides to realize all their legitimate needs and aspirations with the technical and regulatory solutions which are being discussed and can be implemented.” Satellite and IMT services serve each other well, de Dios said. “We are, in many cases, the middle mile to the last mile.” If the intent is to get connectivity to the hardest-to-reach places and to those who don’t have access today, “satellite plays a critical role in making sure the last mile gets there,” he said.

Seiffert said the issue shouldn’t be characterized as a fight. There have been issues where satellite and other services were successfully addressed, he said. This was demonstrated recently by the FCC allowing expanded use of the 5.1 GHz band for unlicensed use (CD April 1 p8), he said. “There’s probably more recent examples of industry working internally than not.” Undoubtedly more spectrum is needed for mobile services, he said. “The growth in mobile Internet and mobile video is just surpassing everyone’s stated forecast and research that’s out there, and you have countries, like in Africa, that are rapidly deploying and growing very fast.”