Nelson Widely Seen as Rockefeller’s Successor on Senate Commerce

Nelson “is definitely the leading name you hear in terms of seniority and interest,” said Public Knowledge Vice President-Government Affairs Chris Lewis. Nelson recently hired back Chris Day to handle telecom issues, which may be a sign of his focus, Lewis said. Day started Jan. 6 as deputy legislative director. Boxer outranks Nelson in seniority, but the Committee on Environment and Public Works she currently chairs “is very important to her state,” Lewis said. “That’s why a lot of folks have looked to Nelson.”

Consensus among Capitol Hill observers is that Nelson is in line for the Senate Commerce chairmanship and definitely wants it, said a former senior Senate staffer. He said he would be surprised if Boxer made a move for Senate Commerce given her state interests locked up in Environment and Public Works. As chairman, Nelson would likely be more readily open to compromise than Boxer, the ex-staffer said, although Boxer has shown herself more able to move difficult legislation. The ex-staffer questioned whether Nelson has really been tested in moving any serious, contentious legislation.

A spokesman for Nelson indicated Nelson is receptive. “It’s really a little early to talk about future leadership on the Commerce Committee, except to say Sen. Nelson has long been a consumer advocate going back to his time as Florida’s insurance commissioner,” the spokesman told us. “And he'd be honored should circumstances ever allow his chairing that committee."

Nelson, 71, chairs the Space Subcommittee within Senate Commerce. He also chairs the Special Committee on Aging and is a member of Finance, Armed Services and Budget. He’s on his third term as Florida senator, taking office in 2001 and winning campaigns in 2006 and 2012. He had represented Florida in the House for many years and is noted for being one of the few members of Congress to have flown in outer space. Nelson is not a member of the Communications Subcommittee nor typically noted for his telecom focus, but has occasionally shown interest. Last month, he joined with Rockefeller, Communications Subcommittee Chairman Mark Pryor, D-Ark., and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to introduce a data security bill.

Nelson is the senator people are expecting to take over Senate Commerce if the Senate stays Democratic, said a cable industry lobbyist. Boxer does have seniority but the perception is that she’s not interested in leaving Environment and Public Works, the cable lobbyist said. Cantwell is the other senior Democrat, if not as senior as Nelson, he said, potentially worth watching for any subcommittee openings.

Cantwell Possible Contender

Don’t expect Cantwell to go without a fight over the full committee chairmanship, a media industry lobbyist said. Cantwell has been working behind the scenes hard, with an eye toward Nelson taking the Budget Committee, which would allow Cantwell to chair Commerce, a committee well-suited to the Washington state constituents she represents, the lobbyist said. Cantwell, 55, is one of the more senior members of the Commerce Committee. She chairs the Committee on Indian Affairs and is also a member of Finance, Energy and Natural Resources and Small Business. She has been a member of the Senate since 2001 and was a member of the House for a term in the 1990s. She also had a stint as an executive at the Seattle-based Internet company RealNetworks. In the Senate, she has been one of the more ardent defenders of net neutrality, critical of the FCC’s vacated net neutrality rules for never having gone far enough in the first place. Her office did not comment.

A broadcast industry lobbyist said he’s heard some rumblings of Cantwell’s interest, but Nelson’s the widely assumed frontrunner. In the Senate in particular, any challengers would need a really great case to bypass seniority, the broadcast lobbyist added.

Whether the chamber will stay Democratic “is in question,” and if it goes Republican, committee ranking member John Thune, R-S.D., will likely chair the committee and Communications Subcommittee ranking member Roger Wicker, R-Miss., the subcommittee, Lewis said: Thune “would be an interesting chair to work with.” Other lobbyists largely agreed that Thune and Wicker would be the natural committee and subcommittee chairmen in a Republican upset. Lewis emphasized Thune’s experience and said he “understands the importance of broadband to rural communities” and was out front on issues of universal service rule updates and rural call completion problems.

The other wild card is whether Communications Subcommittee Chairman Pryor will win back his Senate seat in November, lobbyists agreed. He’s facing Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., in a difficult race widely considered a toss-up.

Pryor “certainly has been a leader over the last year,” Lewis said, pointing to the senator’s attention to spectrum, video issues and the IP transition. Senate Commerce has several consumer advocates, beyond simply Rockefeller and Pryor, Lewis said, naming Democratic Sens. Cantwell; Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut.; Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; and Ed Markey of Massachusetts, all “ready to carry the torch” of consumer advocacy, according to Lewis. Cantwell is most senior and a “longtime advocate of net neutrality,” he said. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., also showed promise in a recent hearing with his interest in unlicensed spectrum, Lewis said. There are also more junior Republicans on the committee “weighing in and learning about these issues” of consumer importance, Lewis said, pointing to Sens. Kelly Ayotte, N.H., and Deb Fischer, Neb., focused on rural issues and call completion problems, respectively.

"Count on this -- it’s not too early for that chatter,” said Jeff Silva, analyst at Medley Global Advisors, of such Senate Commerce Committee chairmanship debate. Expect “lots of war-gaming, he added. “That is such a prestigious chairmanship.” Given its “coveted” status, scrutiny “will escalate,” Silva affirmed. “Nothing is guaranteed.”