A rumored Comcast/Time Warner Cable transaction or “partial combo”...

Warner Cable would go to Comcast and part to Charter, Wells Fargo is “not that concerned” that possible antitrust or public interest objections would prevent the combination from happening, she said. However, it’s not certain that Comcast would be willing to bear “another year of regulatory scrutiny” similar to what it endured during its buy of control in NBCUniversal, she said. Ultimately, Comcast “would not shy away from a deal with significant long-term benefits,” she said. Such a deal could also lead to future big mergers in DBS, she said. “Any distribution tie-up bodes well for an eventual DISH-DTV merger.” A Comcast/Time Warner Cable doesn’t include “programming cost synergies” as big as expected, and so might not lead to other media deals, she said. “Visceral negative reaction” to any Comcast/Time Warner Cable deal could be overcome by regulators approving it “with extensive conditions [that] could advance the Administration’s policy goals for the pay TV and broadband markets,” said Guggenheim Partners analyst Paul Gallant in an email to investors. “We are inclined to believe cooler heads would prevail and that regulators would view merger conditions as a pragmatic way to advance outcomes that the Administration probably cares about.” Gallant also considered a scenario where Time Warner Cable would be divided between Comcast and Charter, which he said would improve the chances of winning regulatory approval. “Our instinct is that the regulatory concerns would be lower if Comcast only proposed buying half of TWC simply because, from the FCC/DOJ’s perspective, the risk-reward balance probably improves,” Gallant said. Possible conditions imposed on such a deal could be related to promoting competition in over-the-top video, net neutrality, channel bundling or the FCC broadcast-TV spectrum auction, he wrote. “Comcast’s NBC and Telemundo stations are located in some of the largest cities, which is where the FCC is hoping to persuade station owners to sell in the broadcast spectrum auction."