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While “the FCC remains optimistic that the spectrum...

While “the FCC remains optimistic that the spectrum incentive auction will materialize in 2014,” broadcasters that an industry analyst spoke with “believe a more realistic timeframe is 2015/2016,” she wrote investors Friday. Some concerns from broadcasters include the repacking of…

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channels after the auction, “Mexican and Canadian border issues, the uncertainty around final spectrum proceeds, and the overall complexity of the entire auction process (at least as it stands today),” wrote Marci Ryvicker of Wells Fargo. Uncertainty among broadcasters may dampen their interest in participating in the reverse auction, leaving less spectrum cleared to be sold to carriers (CD June 4 p4). Meanwhile, “TV M&A market remains HOT!” wrote Ryvicker of mergers and acquisitions, with as much as $8 billion of TV assets for sale or likely to go on the block in the next year or two. “While retrans is still a big driver of synergies, there is more focus on efficiencies from both a cost perspective and duopolies,” she wrote. Every broadcaster she spoke with at the SNL Kagan conference in New York said retransmission consent revenue will be split equally between affiliates and broadcast networks over the next three to four years, the analyst said. “Retrans rates seem to be higher than what we had expected,” she continued: Charges have averaged $1 a month per subscriber in recent deals.