Wireless Industry Says Incentive Auction Won’t Satisfy All Carrier Needs
U.S. demand for spectrum will quickly outstrip supply and wireless companies are focused on expanding infrastructure and technology to keep up, officials from several of those companies said at the Winnik International Telecoms & Internet Forum Friday. To make up the gap, they said their industry is looking to alternatives to cellular towers, bandwidth sharing technology, and additional ways to clear spectrum. “There is a huge challenge facing operators on how to come up with forward-looking spectrum and spectrum utilization technology that can handle the upward turn in spectrum traffic,” said David Jeppsen, NTT DoCoMo USA vice president-business development.
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The spectrum incentive auction is expected to increase available spectrum in the U.S. by 62 percent, said PCIA President Jonathan Adelstein, but he said that’s not enough because the industry is projecting a 1,000 percent increase in demand. “We've fallen behind this,” he said. “We have no choice but to build more infrastructure.” He said that as wireless speeds have improved, consumers quickly grow accustomed to the new speed and increase their data consumption accordingly, overwhelming efficiencies gained by the speed increase. McKinsey & Co. Senior Technology Practice Expert Stagg Newman said new technology that is even more bandwidth-dependent, such as 4K Ultra HD TV, is already on the horizon. Adelstein, a former FCC commissioner, also said surveillance tech could start to consume vast amounts of spectrum. “It’s a scary thought, but it takes a heck of a lot of bandwidth when you got drones overhead monitoring us all day long,” said Newman, former FCC chief technologist.
Adelstein said the main way to combat the approaching crunch is to expand spectrum infrastructure by building more antennas, focusing on small cell technology and heterogeneous wireless networks -- small localized alternatives to the more familiar cellular towers. Wireless industry analyst Michael McKenzie of Grain Management said combining these smaller installations with the traditional “macro” networks is an emerging trend in the industry. “These newer infrastructure components are generally more complementary than competitive with macro cell infrastructure,” said McKenzie.
To squeeze more out of existing spectrum, wireless chip maker Qualcomm is working on technology to facilitate bandwidth sharing, called “authorized shared access.” Dean Brenner, Qualcomm vice president-government affairs, said the approach is focused on allowing users to temporarily access other users’ bandwidth when the “primary user” isn’t using it -- to increase download speeds, for example. Jeppsen said sharing was becoming an important topic in the industry, but there are still concerns about “protecting the incumbent users.”
Brenner said sharing bandwidth might allow the wireless industry to use spectrum that can’t be cleared, such as spectrum being used by the federal government. He said the industry or the government should come up with ways to “incentivize” government agencies to share or clear spectrum. “If the agencies have no incentive to get sharing going, it’s not going to happen,” said Brenner. One audience member brought up the possibility of awarding cash bonuses to agency heads that clear their spectrum, which the panelists supported, though they said it would be problematic to implement. “There needs to be an incentive, maybe some form of fee … to move that spectrum to a more rational use,” said CTIA Vice President Chris Guttman-McCabe.
Connecting across international borders is also a “hot topic” in the wireless industry, Inmarsat’s Diane Cornell said. “You want to get as much globally harmonized spectrum as you can,” she said. Brenner said much of the world is still working on transitioning from 2G to 3G, and Cornell said developing wireless markets are more interested in using unlicensed spectrum to create hotspots because globally high-speed broadband is not as available as widely as it is in the U.S.
Guttman-McCabe said the U.S. “is hitting a wall” when it comes to freeing up spectrum for wireless as compared with other countries. If the U.S. “wants to stay ahead of the curve, wants devices launched here first,” it must release more spectrum, he said. However, Newman and McKenzie both said they believe the wireless industry will find a way to address the spectrum crunch and meet the rising demand.