Boucher, Lincoln Bids Among Closely Watched November Races

Political analysts are predicting tough races for many incumbent Democrats. This week, the Cook Political Report downgraded the chances for 10 Democrats running for the House. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday found 37 percent of respondents said their representative deserves re-election, down from 42 percent in the fall. “Many Democrats are vulnerable this year, even several long-time incumbents who haven’t seen a close race in years,” said Isaac Wood, House race editor for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. The president’s party has lost seats in all but two midterm elections since the 1930s, and the current state of the economy may strengthen the tide, he said. “With the economy showing signs of continued weakness, voters are looking to vent their frustrations and send a message to Washington. They best way to do that? Boot out the governing party."

It’s difficult to predict the effect of a possible GOP tide this election, said Potomac Research analyst Paul Glenchur. Pundits tend to “underestimate the impact of the wave in individual races,” he said. Boucher’s “long-time incumbency and deep ties to the district make him an unlikely casualty of this election season, but a strong Republican wave could wash away even some veteran Democrats,” said Wood. Boucher probably will win, but he “is undoubtedly facing one of his toughest re-election races in recent memory,” said Medley Global Advisors analyst Jeffrey Silva. “Whether Democrats can retain control of the House in midterm elections is perhaps more nebulous."

The National Republican Congressional Committee set $22 million this week in “first-wave” TV ad spending for 40 House races. Two targeted races involve House Communications Subcommittee members: Reps. Baron Hill, D-Ind., and Jerry McNerney, D-Calif. The GOP committee didn’t spend money against Boucher. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly set aside $28 million last month, including for Space, Hill and McNerney.

Boucher’s ninth district leans Democratic, according to Cook and the Rothenberg Political Report. Boucher ran unopposed in 2008. He now has more than 6.5 times more campaign cash than Republican opponent Morgan Griffith. Boucher had more than $2 million cash on hand on June 30, compared to just under $300,000 by Griffith, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Employees and political actions committees associated with telecom, media and Internet companies have contributed nearly $309,000 combined to Boucher, and nothing to Griffith.

Boucher has to work hard but is expected to win, said a telecom industry official. To do so, he must convince a conservative, Appalachian district that voted strongly for Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2008. And he must defend a vote for cap-and-trade environmental legislation that coal companies in his territory opposed.

Though the district has voted Republican in other state and national races over the years, it’s elected Boucher 14 straight times since 1982. Boucher “rarely just jumps in line with the party,” and has historically voted for his constituents even when Democratic leadership went the other way, Vice President Tom Wacker of the National Telecommunications Cooperative Association said. Boucher voted against this year’s controversial healthcare overhaul and has supported gun ownership rights.

If Boucher and Terry, sponsors of Universal Service Fund revamp legislation, were to lose, rural carriers would have to find a new champion in Congress for the USF fight, a telecom industry official said. “Boucher’s absence would be a setback for USF reform given the consensus he and Terry have achieved and his close working relationship with [FCC Chairman Julius] Genachowski,” said Concept Capital analyst Paul Gallant. A Boucher defeat “would be a blow for rural telecom interests and could complicate efforts to advance” USF reform legislation, Silva said. “It would be a big loss for telecom policymaking in light of Boucher’s expertise, experience and his ability to work across the aisle on telecom, media and technology issues."

Top political analysts currently give Space the edge over his opponent, Republican State Sen. Bob Gibbs. Cook and Rothenberg rate the election “lean Democrat.” The freshman member won the 2008 election with 60 percent of the vote. Space had nearly $1.3 million cash on hand on June 30 while Gibbs had less than $210,000. Cook and Rothenberg pollsters both rate Rep. Hill a “toss up.” McNerney is rated “lean Democrat."

Some telecom industry officials said the GOP’s Terry, the co-sponsor of Boucher’s Universal Service Fund revamp bill, might also be at risk. Terry’s area includes Omaha and is the most liberal district in Nebraska. But political analysts favor Terry in his race against Democratic state Sen. Tom White. As of June 30, Terry had more than $787,000 cash on hand, compared to $532,000 by White.

No matter the results of the election, the House Communications Subcommittee will lose Reps. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., and Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., to retirement. And Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-La., is running for the Senate. The Senate Communications Subcommittee will lose Sens. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., and Sam Brownback, R-Kan., to retirement. Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., is not seeking re-election.

Closely-Watched Senate Races

Senate races closely watched by telecom include those of Lincoln, who oversees the Rural Utilities Service as chair of the Agriculture Committee, and Boxer, who faces former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. The Cook report rates Lincoln’s election a “toss-up,” but Rothenberg believes the state leans Republican. Cook and Rothenberg agree it’s a toss-up whether Boxer will keep her seat, although Rothenberg says the area may “tilt Democrat."

Lincoln survived her primary but the national attention around that election has followed, making it unclear whether she'll win this November, said Wacker of the National Telecommunications Cooperative Association. It would be a tremendous loss to rural telcos if she lost, he said.

In the Senate Communications Subcommittee, Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye is the only Democrat up for re--election, and he’s considered safe. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., was initially expected to face a close race, but his chances seem to have improved, telecom industry officials said. Vitter won in 2008 with only 51 percent of the vote, and Cook rates Vitter’s race this year as “lean Republican.” Other Republicans on the subcommittee up for reelection, including Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, John Thune of South Dakota and Johnny Isakson of Georgia are considered safe by Cook and Rothenberg.