No Interoperable 3D Glasses Standard for 1-2 Years, XpanD Says

As an interim step, XpanD thinks “we have an answer to a consumer need,” in its Model X103 interoperable active-shutter glasses that it has started shipping, Chechelashvili said. The X103s have “scanning software” built into the frames that analyzes the emitter signal coming from the set, he said. “Based on the handshake with the TV,” the software recognizes “on the fly” the protocol necessary to work the glasses, he said.

All the active-shutter 3D TVs use communications protocol that is “proprietary” to an individual brand’s sets, he said. The protocols control the interaction between the emitter in the TV and the glasses, he said. “There is a set of commands in the timing between the glasses and the TV, and everyone uses different languages. Thus, compatibility is very difficult between the sets."

XpanD thinks of 3D as “a social experience,” Chechelashvili said. “It brings people home together to watch something new, something exciting. We believe there should be a way for people to gather in a friend’s house and each should have his or her own pair of glasses” that will work with any brand of 3D TV, he said. “For consumers, would you be willing to buy a Blu-ray player if it worked with only one brand of TV set?"

There’s a “very simple answer,” cost, “but a subset of complexities below it” to explain why studios have released so few Blu-ray 3D titles to the market, Mike Abary, senior vice president of Sony’s Home Division, told an audience questioner. Earlier, Abary cited content availability as one of the “keys” to bridging the “chasm” of 3D TV adoption between early adopters and mainstream consumers. He lauded the five dozen 3D films to be released theatrically in the next two years as a “healthy” number for future 3D TV adoption, and said the 20 PS3 stereoscopic 3D titles due by March and the advent of ESPN 3D would help significantly too. But Abary was silent on Blu-ray 3D.

It costs studios “millions” in incremental money to produce Blu-ray 3D titles compared with their 2D versions, Abary said. “Even though natively the films are shot in 3D, there’s still a process that has to be done in order to put 3D production onto Blu-ray.” With the 3D TV installed base still very small, “not many studios are willing to invest without scale,” and that “economic question is a barrier,” Abary said. The few Blu-ray 3D titles available today “are exclusive to certain television manufacturers,” he said. For example, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs in Blu-ray 3D is exclusive to Sony 3D TVs, and the same holds true for Monsters vs. Aliens as a Samsung exclusive, he said. Those exclusives are “tied to the volume” of the 3D TVs that are sold, he said. “That’s the only way that the studios are willing to produce because there’s a guarantee on return of investment.” Abary predicted that “by this time next year, you're going to see a lot more openly sold titles not exclusive to any one manufacturer."

Even in their early stages, 3D TVs are a proven traffic builder at retail, Abary said. Sony research has found that foot traffic at Sony Style stores is up 17 percent compared with a year ago since Sony started selling its 3D TVs in late July, he said. Still, challenges abound at retail in merchandising 3D TVs, and they're “basic things, like how to keep the glasses clean,” he said. At the end of the average selling day, retailers are telling Sony that the glasses are “filthy” or “broken,” if they haven’t been stolen, he said. Viewing the best possible 3D TV at retail hinges on “angle, height and space that’s optimal,” he said. “Right now, it’s not optimal, I have to admit.” Meanwhile, Sony thinks that “mainstream 3D TV adoption will come with mainstream price points,” Abary said, and Sony plans to launch a line of lower-priced 3D TVs next spring for the 2011 selling season.

Panasonic thinks of 3D as “not just an enhancement but a significantly elevated experience,” Eisuke Tsuyuzaki, chief technology officer at Panasonic North America, told the conference. Reflecting 3D TV’s potential to grow very rapidly, Tsuyuzaki said his “personal” prediction is that there'll be a dozen or more 3D-dedicated TV channels by the end of 2011. “Change is constant and it is speeding up,” he said when asked if new technology introductions in the TV category are happening too rapidly. “You've got to temper it with consumer behavior. In other words, you can’t create technology for technology’s sake."

Responding to another questioner, Tsuyuzaki said he isn’t bothered by any imbalance in picture quality between Blu-ray 3D’s full 1080p resolution in both eyes and 3D sports beamed on pay TV in half resolution. “I'm a true believer that if you're going to plunk $2,000 down for a 3D TV, it should be full HD,” he said. “But the issue is not necessarily full HD or half-resolution HD, but how many megabits per second can you put through the set-top. Basically, if people want to watch the World Series or they want to watch some interesting things, then they'll look at the content first. The constraint really is a set-top-box one, and I think that will be resolved fairly quickly."

DisplaySearch Conference Notebook

DisplaySearch has upgraded its 3D TV shipment forecasts several times this year, but is reluctant to side with makers that predict a huge 3D TV sales boom coming, said Paul Gagnon, director of North American TV research. DisplaySearch now thinks the industry will sell 3.4 million 3D TV sets globally this year, of which 2.2 million will be sold in North America, he said. By 2014, global shipments will grow to 43 million 3D TV sets, Gagnon said. That compares with Sony forecasts that the industry will sell 100 million 3D TVs globally the next three years. In 3D TV, “balancing hype with the realities of an immature ecosystem will be a challenge,” Gagnon said. Lack of content, low consumer awareness and the chance consumers will suffer a low-quality experience are the biggest challenges facing 3D TV, he said.