That CEA changed its 2010 3D TV sales outlook...
That CEA changed its 2010 3D TV sales outlook for the fourth time in less than a year means that “in retrospect,” it would have been “better off sticking with its original 2.2 million unit forecast,” CL King analyst Lawrence…
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Harris said in a research note Friday. Thursday, CEA said it’s now forecasting 2.1 million 3-D TVs will be sold in the U.S. this year (CED July 23 p8). In December, it projected the industry would sell 2.2 million sets then raised its forecast to 4 million just after CES, only to downgrade it to 1.1 million units a month later, Harris said. “Don’t touch that dial,” Harris quipped, warning investors CEA likely will change its forecast again. “The extreme variability in the CEA forecasts only emphasizes the early aspect of the transition to 3D TV, in our opinion,” he said. But CEA has for decades “produced the most comprehensive data program in the CE industry,” spokesman Jason Oxman told us by e-mail Friday. “We regularly update our projections every six months -- in January and July -- and we base those projections on industry consensus, meaning we receive forecast data directly from the manufacturers that make the products and the retailers and installers that sell them. As they update us with their projections, so, too, do we update the inputs into our forecasts.” CEA’s January 3D TV sales forecast and last week’s update “are part of the regular process of releasing our consensus forecast, including for those nascent categories like 3D TV that are challenging to project,” Oxman said. “There were never four different forecasts, and indeed to call CEA’s regularly scheduled forecast updates ‘revisions,’ is to misunderstand the nature and function of our CE Market Metrics program.”