Lackluster Launch Numbers Signify Hard Times Ahead
Last year was the worst year since 1961 for the number of space launches, and the forecast for the next half-decade is just as dismal, according to research firm Airclaims. There were only 54 orbital launches in 2004 -- including 12 commercial geostationary satellite liftoffs - - down from 63 in 2003 and 65 in 2002, the company said. Launch numbers have been sliding since the fall of the Soviet Union, which meant fewer “Cold War-induced” military launches. Last year, “many of the major players were affected by delays due to technical difficulties or satellite related delays,” said Airclaims Space Analyst David Todd.
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The launch vehicle failure rate increased drastically at the end of the year with the maiden flight failure of the Boeing Delta 4 Heavy launch and the 3rd-stage failure of a Ukrainian Tsyklon 3 rocket, Airclaims said. Consequently, 2004 wrapped as an “average year” with 4 launcher-related failures out of 54 flights. The other 2 launcher-related failures were the SHAVIT in Sept., which dropped an Israeli spy satellite into the Mediterranean Sea, and the premature shutdown of a Boeing Sea Launch Zenit 3 SL in June that almost stranded the APStar 5 commercial communications satellite, the firm said. Two other spacecraft experienced launch-related difficulties as well: TeleStar 14 sustained damage during launch and was unable to fully deploy one of its solar arrays and the SuperBird 6 sustained damage to its solar array outer panels during a lower-than-planned perigee pass.
The introduction of mobile satellite constellations in low earth orbit by companies like Iridium and Globalstar buoyed the industry in the late 1990s, but data for recent years shows the upturn is over, the firm said. Commercial flights to geostationary earth orbit also declined to a dozen in 2004 compared with 17 payloads launched on 13 flights in 2003. Several planned flights were delayed into 2005 for technical reasons or for further precautionary checks, while some launches were stymied due to late delivery of satellites, analysts said.
International Launch Services’ (ILS) Atlas 2, 2A & 2AS rockets were retired, and the company was proud to note that the Atlas 2, 3 and 5 rockets now jointly hold the record of longest continuous run of successful flights (74) with Arianespace’s now-retired Ariane 4 family. Also in 2004, Arianespace flew the Ariane 5G Plus 3 times and took the record for launching the largest commercial satellite to date -- the Telesat Anik F2, the firm said. The return-to-flight launch of the Ariane 5 ECA was delayed until 2005 and both the Japanese H-2A and the Space Shuttle remained grounded during 2004, Airclaims said. Sub-orbital Space tourism, however, received a major boost when the first flights of the SpaceShipOne spacecraft won the $10 million Ansari X-prize competition.
Todd told us that ILS emerged the clear winner among the major global launch companies in 2004. He called the company a “a nice little earner with its Proton rockets” but warned that prices are beginning to rise again because competitors realized that “trying to knock each other out for market share is no good if they're not making money.” He said Arianespace is “just barely profitable” and the company will have to get the ECA flying reliably and quickly “or else they'll be in dire straits.”
Despite Airclaim’s gloomy picture for the sector, ILS insists it had a solid year with 10 launches under its belt in 2004. ILS was supposed to send up its first payload of 2005 -- a classified National Reconnaissance Office satellite -- this week, but liftoff of the Atlas 3 has been pushed back until next week. The company, which also plans to launch SES Americom’s AMC 12 on Feb. 3, expects this year’s launch number to rival 2004’s total. ILS has another launch slated for March and commercial liftoffs throughout the rest of the year. In addition, ILS will send up the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA in Aug., marking the first govt. mission on Atlas 5, a spokeswoman said.
Competitor Arianespace had 3 launches in 2004: The Anik F2, Helios 2 and the Rosetta Comet Exploration Spacecraft. The outlook for 2005: “So far so good,” a spokesman said. Arianespace plans to launch its Ariane 5 ECA on Feb. 11 and possibly once or twice more this year, in addition to a handful of launches on the Ariane 5. The company anticipates a total of about 6 launches in 2005. “Our schedule is determined by manufacturers and we're at their mercy, unfortunately,” the spokesman said, saying his company’s backlog of 40 launches is still the largest in the industry.
Sea Launch, which sent up XM Satellite Radio’s first 2 spacecraft in 2001, is gearing up for a busy year. The company is preparing to send up XM’s 3rd satellite in Feb. and is on track for 5 more launches in 2005. In 2004, Sea Launch completed only 3 launches, Airclaims said.
A previous Airclaims study predicted no dramatic growth in the number of individual satellites or launch vehicles over the next 5 years, which would “undoubtedly lead to further consolidation or withdrawals from the market.” The govt. and scientific satellite market, which accounts for about 54% of launch activity, will show the greatest promise with an increase in the number of small satellites, which generally will be launched as secondary payloads or in groups on individual launch vehicles, the firm said in Oct.
“Part of the challenge we face is adapting to the changing marketplace,” the Arianespace official said: “In the ‘90s, you had this rich prospect for constellations of satellites and that’s been tempered somewhat. Now the forecast for satellite orders is much more moderate.”