Powell Nearing Decisions on DTV Deadline, CableCARD

Referring to proposals to count digital cable households toward the threshold, Powell said there are “lots of ways to go about” resolving transition issues. He said he expects the FCC to decide on interpreting what is a digital household this year. “This is a problem that has been avoided for years,” Powell said, because people always considered 2006 so far off.

The DTV transition otherwise is “going quite well,” Powell said. He said DTV was “pretty much moribund” 2 or 3 years ago, and no one would have predicted it would speed up as it has. Industry and the FCC have stimulated “a rapid increase in adoption… It is a hit.” But Powell predicted that “fantastic pictures” won’t be enough in the long term, and DTV must be “mobile, interactive and portable.”

The burden of proof is on cable to prove there’s a need to again put off CableCARD deadlines, Powell said, adding the proposed delay raises “tough issues.” He said there’s a good deal of “rapid development in box technology that will bring a lot of inspiring new products into the home,” for example. But he said the CableCARD rules and deadlines are set, so cable will have to demonstrate clear public interest benefits to get an extension.

Powell expressed disappointment with talks on 2-way CableCARDs between the cable and consumer electronics industries, saying they're “not going well enough.” He acknowledged the talks were “hard” since each industry was battling for its share of the digital future. “But things are moving too fast to sit in meetings forever,” Powell said. “If it takes too long, people will want us to step in and do it, and we're no good at it.”

Powell said he wouldn’t support putting additional content restrictions on satellite radio, in response to the Howard Stern hiring and just to level the playing field with broadcast radio. “If they want parity, it ought to be by moving to less, not more, regulation,” he said, noting he was speaking for “just me.” He said U.S. Supreme Court rulings blocking regulation of Internet content clearly indicate the courts wouldn’t support more content regulation. It isn’t even clear when program distribution is Internet-based anymore, Powell said: “Technology is blurring the lines… At the end of the day I think we will be moving more in the free speech direction.”

Asked by CEA Pres. Gary Shapiro what is being done in the U.S. on broadband, since broadband penetration is higher in other countries, Powell said he’s not convinced anything is wrong. He said we should avoid “flip comparisons” that don’t take account of considerations such as differing geographies. Powell cited a “really astonishing adoption rate” for broadband in the U.S., which he said is at triple-digit levels, and suggested it’s unlikely govt. could improve on that.

Govt. subsidies to boost broadband are unlikely, Powell said, but govt. should remove regulatory barriers, such as copyright rules that limit what can be distributed over broadband and local rules that delay installation. More importantly for the long term, he said, the U.S. isn’t limiting itself to one type of broadband, like some countries. He said the goal should be to allow as many types of broadband as possible, and see which works best. “I believe in putting lots of tools in the toolbox,” Powell said. “If you do, you'll get a lot more creative entrepreneurs than the rest of the world.”

Powell called HD Radio “great and essential” and indicated reluctance to set new limits on it. He said he “loathes” the role that industry is tending to push on the FCC of picking winners and losers as new technologies evolve. He also said that’s becoming more difficult because technologies are moving together and consumers keep raising new demands.

“In the very near future, there will be only the most modest of differences among telecom providers,” Powell predicted. He said companies such as Comcast and SBC may have very different histories, but there will soon be little difference in the way they deliver content: “There’s no triple play. There’s just one play -- data.” One of govt.’s big roles, he predicted, will be to “stop evil data” such as viruses and spam: “Government has got to do all it can to get that out of the system.”

On other issues, Powell said: (1) Broadcasters should be careful about claiming they're uniquely burdened by regulation, because eliminating regulation could also mean eliminating their unique status. He acknowledged that many limits on broadcasters are less defensible now, as media proliferate, but he warned, “be careful what you ask for.” (2) There will be a lot of wireless activity at the FCC this year, as the agency tries to make more broadband wireless, licensed and unlicensed, available. (3) “I guarantee” there will be something like 15 VoIP proceedings at the FCC this year: “There is a lot of innovation that doesn’t look like it will fit into our existing [regulatory] buckets.”

(4) Digital video recorders (DVRs) are “just exactly the kind of take-control technology that consumers want.” (5) Powell is “grateful” that the FCC doesn’t have to deal with copyright issues, but “consumers won’t tolerate a situation in which… they won’t legally be able to transfer content among devices.” (6) The broadcast flag is one of the important issues in the DTV transition, but the FCC is “struggling quite hard” to assure consumers have fair access to content. -- Michael Feazel

CES Notebook…

The video equivalent of search engines soon will replace program guides, speakers predicted on a TV transition panel here Thurs. Some panelists continued to defend the importance of network and producer brands as viewers are overwhelmed with TV choices, but others said computer technology, including metadata, will soon be doing the job for consumers. “The new network could be the search engine,” said Albert Cheng, Disney senior vp- strategic development: “It could be five years from now; it could be three.” Tim Hanlon, senior vp of StarCom MediaVest, agreed that as search engines get better, people will just tell the engine what they're interested in and let the technology bring it. He cited the recent face-off between Jon Stewart and CNN’s Tucker Carlson, watched by a few hundred thousand people on CNN but more than 3 million online. TV Guide Senior Vp-Gen. Mgr. Stacy Jolna said program guides will remain important but need to improve. He said he can’t understand people who say there’s nothing good on TV when hundreds of channels are available, but people still have too much trouble sorting out what they want.