USTA Notebook...
BellSouth wants cellular set-makers to incorporate Wi-Fi capability into cellphones so the devices can connect to a home Wi-Fi network automatically, BellSouth Chief Technology Officer Bill Smith said in a J.D. Power panel at the USTA convention in Las Vegas. He said that would allow individuals within a household to use their cellphones at home without using cellular minutes, since the Wi-Fi would connect through BellSouth’s DSL service. Motorola already has started making Wi-Fi-capable handsets, he said, and others are looking at them. One concern has been cost -- adding Wi-Fi initially increased the cost of a handset by $20, but Smith said the incremental cost soon might be as little as $5. He said as much as 40% of cell minutes were used within the home already, because of using cells for long distance and because some members of households used them as their primary phones. Partly as a result, he said, counting access lines is becoming less relevant. Smith also said BellSouth expected to respond to higher broadband data rates offered by cable operators such as Comcast by introducing a 3 Mbps DSL, up from 1.5 Mbps, offering by early next year. He said most of BellSouth’s network already was technically capable of 3 Mbps.
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More than 45% of long distance calls are being displaced by a combination of e-mail (19%), instant messaging, voice- over-Internet protocol and wireless telephone (20%), J.D. Power Senior Dir. Steve Kirkeby said. He said the figure for local calls was more than 30%, including 10% displacement by e-mail and 15% by wireless. Kirkeby predicted as many as 5% of U.S. households would eliminate a traditional wireline phone by early next year, up from 2% in 2002, and “the trend will continue.” J.D. Power’s customer surveys indicated that DSL had passed cable modems for the first time as the first choice of those likely to add broadband Internet. Kirkeby said 52% of those who said they were likely to add broadband in the next 6 months said they would choose DSL, vs. 38% for cable modems, 6% satellites, 3% fixed wireless and 1% ISDN. Other Power findings included that, among Internet households, 52% used the Internet to review their long distance bills, vs. 41% in 2001, and 47% used it to review local phone bills, up from 29%. Kirkeby said that was important for telcos because online reviews were cheaper. However, only 27% used the Internet to pay their long distance bills and 31% their local bills, up from 8% and 12%, respectively.
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Telcos will at least begin deploying fiber to the premises (FTP) on a trial basis next year, speakers said at the USTA conference, but the extent of the deployment will depend partly on regulation. Developers of the joint FTP request for proposals by BellSouth, SBC and Verizon said the process was going well and lab testing would begin next month. They said all 3 companies expected to begin deploying FTP in new real estate developments next year, in part because of a favorable regulatory environment for new-builds. However, “we have to get a better regulatory framework” for overbuilds in existing neighborhoods, said Keith Cambron, pres. Of SBC Labs. Peter Hill, BellSouth vp-technology, said FTP costs were falling rapidly to the point where the difference between fiber and copper was “manageable,” as well as offering better service-life costs. Cambron said he personally believed that both the technology and economics were “there” for FTP: “If we can get the regulation right, I believe it will happen.”