DIGITAL HOLLYWOOD STILL HOPEFUL ON BROADBAND ACCESS
SAN JOSE -- While dot.com crash has dampened much of enthusiasm for finding new and faster ways for delivering data to consumers, Digital Hollywood Broadband conference here this week offered some glimmers of hope that new technologies and, more importantly, business models would evolve to enable satellite and wireless to join cable modems and DSL in high-speed delivery of content to consumers.
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In many ways, attendees were told, satellite delivery may be best poised to drive broadband revolution, acting not just as competitor to DSL and cable modems, but also as partner that can cost-efficiently deliver content to cable headends. Carmel Group analyst James Stroud said installed base for satellite broadband would grow to 14 million by 2008 from one million this year, generating $6 billion in annual revenue.
Panelists were split on whether delivery should be one-way or 2-way. SkyStream Networks Mktg. Vp Clint Chao said real growth in satellite broadband could be in one-way point to massively multipoint delivery of content rather than establishing 2-way high-speed services such as Starband: “There are far more applications for one-way use of satellites.” But whether one-way or 2-way, broadband satellite are likely to imitate DBS rollout, focusing on rural areas initially, then beginning to erode cable and DSL markets in more densely populated areas, panelists said. Anystream CEO Geoff Allen suggested that in many ways it could be difficult for satellite broadband to compete economically with cable and DSL in many areas.
Chao also pointed to DBS as example, saying that while lowest possible DBS monthly fee was around $20, average consumer satellite bill was $59. He said satellite services might be able to follow similar upgrade path by offering additional services on premium tiers. Panelists also debated whether satellite data should be delivered to TV or PC. James Britain, sales vp of News Corp.-controlled NDS Americas, said successful broadband enhanced TV rollout in U.K. with BSkyB had offered many features that U.S. consumers were likely to gravitate to, including video-on-demand, Web TV, Interactive TV, personalized TV.
Despite billions spent of building up backbone, Chao said problem with broadband delivery video streaming, regardless of platform, still was picture quality: “The quality of the stream- casting is poor and it’s not because the content is poor. It’s because the infrastructure is not up to delivering high-quality images.”
While wired world copes with figuring out economic model that will allow further investments in fiber and transponders to make sense, looming on horizon is wireless delivery of broadband images, video, content. Alex Limberis, dir.-business development at Microsoft’s Media Div., touted NTT DoCoMo’s recent Japanese debut of Eggy, $300 device that hooks up to mobile phone and allows sending of images of iMode network. With wireless networks running at 14.4 to (rarely) 128 kbps, problem is that image still is poor. But Margaret Donnelly, dir.-business development at ArrayComm, also touted Eggy, predicting it would be precursor to several new types of wireless data devices that could provide always-on connections and deliver variety of content ranging from business applications to, for example, minifilms from manufacturers offering advice on how to fix dishwasher. As with all things Internet-related, Donnelly said real issue was business model, suggesting subscription-based fees would hold more appeal than incremental pay-per-view plans.
While Kanakaris Wireless CEO Alex Kanakaris touted broadband delivery of full-length movies to wireless devices, most panelists said shorter video streams were better, suggesting that even still images of traffic hot spots might be of more use to consumers in short term until technology allowed for higher wireless bit rates.