SATELLITE BROADBAND COULD STRAIN CAPACITY, FCC OFFICIAL WARNS
LOS ANGELES -- In generally positive speech about satellite industry in particular and growth of DBS in particular, Tom Tycz, chief of FCC Satellite & Radiocommunications Div., told Carmel Group DBS 2001 conference here Tues. that expected growth in satellite as delivery mechanism of broadband data delivery system could quickly tax current satellite capacity.
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Noting current estimates of 20,000 broadband subscribers per transponder or 480,000 broadband data consumers per satellite, he said more satellites might be needed to provide service for estimated 25 million people in rural markets that can receive broadband only by satellite. “There isn’t that much capacity out there,” he said. “Somebody has to do something, either with a breakthrough of new capacity or more efficient use of current capacity. The companies have a lot of work to do if they really want to go after this market.”
Tycz said arrival of new 2-way satellite broadband services from such as EchoStar/Microsoft/Gallant Satellite’s effort and Starband and Hughes’ DirecPC leave satellite well positioned in its upcoming battle with cable modems and DSL for broadband delivery. He said current optimum speeds of 500 kbps on downward path and 150 kbps on upload are more than competitive, and satellite has numerous advantages including ability to leverage current DBS installed base and almost exclusive access to rural markets.
While he made no new announcements, Tycz provided overview of several issues including debate on 18 GHz and successful World Radio Conference negotiations that will clear the way for expansion of satellite services in Alaska. He also touched on the MMVDOS (12.2-12.7 GHz) issue and the current test Northpoint is undergoing, but made no comment other than saying Congress had mandated that test results had to made available by late Feb.
Tycz also acknowledged DBS growth in recent years. He said 3 million new satellite consumers were added between June 1999 and June 2000 and estimates now put total DBS subscriber base at more than 15 million homes. More importantly, he said, was that DBS growth rate was far above current 1.5% rate for cable.
Hughes Electronics Exec. Senior Vp Jack Shaw also touted growth of broadband, saying $1 trillion would be invested overall in building various high-speed networks (including cable and DSL) in next 10 years. He said Hughes has been talking with RBOCs about adding DirecPC to their networks. He said DirecPC’s ability to deliver IP multicasting and combine with other entertainment devices leave it well positioned in future. Shaw also said DirecPC subscriber capacity on Ku-band would top out at about 2-3 million, just in time for the shift to the Ka-band.